If historical Bitcoin price performance leads the way, one trader insists Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point at spot rates. Based on astronomical patterns and lunar arrangements, trading desk QCP Capital believes that Bitcoin prices could rise to $33,000 to $35,000 levels in a bull run, reversing after a sharp decline in 2022. Instead, after the Bitcoin price recovered from 2022 and rose by 20% to mid-June 2023, following the impressive performance of the past few weeks, there may be a contraction, causing the coin to fall.

Supermoon coincides with key reversal in Bitcoin price

The trading desk cited Bitcoin’s past performance at different cycle stages based on technical and fundamental trends. For example, when Bitcoin fell in early 2020, largely due to concerns about the far-reaching impact of lockdowns brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, it rose 161% from early March to May 2020.

The same pattern played out from mid-June to August 2022, when Bitcoin surged 43% in price at the depths of the last cyclical bear market. Bitcoin saw a correction from late April through June 2021, losing 51% in a predominantly bullish market.

BTC market on July 5 | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

According to trading desks, major reversals in bearish and bullish trends occur during "supermoons." In astrology, a supermoon is a full moon that forms when the moon is at its closest point to the Earth in its elliptical orbit. The moon appears brighter than usual during this time and only appears once or twice a year. A supermoon formed on July 4, and traders believe Bitcoin is at a critical reaction point.

For years, people have believed that supermoons are associated with bullishness. However, there are no scientific findings to support this, and there is no statistical correlation. Nonetheless, according to traders’ analysis, the multiple correlations and timing of peaks and troughs in Bitcoin prices during supermoons can be used to predict the BTC market.

Will prices rise or fall?

While it remains to be seen whether BTC will edge higher, break above $31,300 and rebound to the $35,000 area, the trading desk said that fundamental factors will play a key role and remains bullish on the possibility of a rebound of BTC to the $33,000 to $35,000 liquidation area.

Overall, it will be necessary to monitor how the U.S. Federal Reserve implements its monetary policy going forward. Although inflation has been declining, traders noted that it has not fallen far enough to warrant a rate cut. Interest rate cuts tend to move capital into store-of-value assets, and Bitcoin may benefit from this.

On a more pessimistic note, the trading desk expressed caution, saying BTC faces strong resistance at spot levels as the latest rise is likely to be the fifth and final wave since the November 2022 lows. Meanwhile, the $33,000 to $35,000 resistance zone serves as a key resistance trend line.

Therefore, any sell-off could cause BTC to retest the $24,000 and $26,000 support areas. #合约锦标赛