Core point: When judging the market, you need to follow a systematic thinking framework!
Regarding market judgment, the following is the order of consideration of various factors:
1. Macro news: Pay special attention to the expectations of good and bad news, and the progress after these news are actually implemented.
2. Industry dynamics: Pay attention to the expected storytelling, and the actual effects brought about by these stories after they are implemented.
3. Market behavior: Keep a close eye on the actions of institutions and core OGs in the market, including trading decisions, project construction, and changes in market sentiment.
4. Technical analysis: Focus on key indicators such as K-line characteristics, patterns, and trends above the weekly level.
5. On-chain data: Although on-chain data is centered on chips, its importance is relatively low. It is usually reflected in on-chain data only after the first four factors change. Therefore, excessive in-depth research on on-chain data may not be of much significance, and may even mislead you into short-term thinking errors.
Market cycles follow their inherent logic, and we should strive to keep pace with them, rather than trying to lead the market through a single factor. Such attempts often only make us suffer severe lessons from the market.
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