July 3, 2023 Since the news of BlackRock's application for BTC spot trust was announced in mid-June, causing the BTC price to rise above US$30,000, until the past two weeks, the BTC price has remained at this stage with slight fluctuations, and there has been no sign of a clear breakthrough. Judging from the trading volume, this time the trading volume is not even higher than the trading volume explosion caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, technology stocks and financial reports and the continuous collapse of regional banks. We can see from this that the liquidity of the current currency market is still at a very low level. At present, BTC and ETH have not solved the liquidity problem in essence. The shortage of funds and the lack of narrative in the industry itself are still the reasons that affect the price increase. This does not mean that the price of BTC and ETH will not rise, but from the trend point of view, if there is no continued favorable stimulus, the range of price changes is still limited. Before the SEC explicitly rejects or bad information appears, the probability of bargain hunting funds continuing to hold positions will be higher. According to Xiaomai's experience, July is an information month every year. July is not only the month for the Fed to raise interest rates, but also the month for the release of the second quarter financial report. The rise of US stocks and even technology stocks after the first quarter is because the financial report is better than expected, which has driven the rise of BTC and ETH. Whether this financial report can continue the rise of US stocks in the future depends on the data of this month. If the Fed does not choose to raise interest rates in July, the market will gamble that the Fed will not continue to raise interest rates, and 5.25% is the final interest rate. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates in July, then the market will focus on the dot chart in September. Now the market is more focused on the applications of several large funds for BTC trusts and spot ETFs. Both loss-making and profit-making holders have the opportunity to gamble. Don’t give up your chips easily. From a technical perspective, Ethereum 1850 intervenes in the spot, and Bitcoin intervenes in the spot close to the moving average. If it can penetrate 29500, it will be a good opportunity.
