⏳The forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that a major recession is looming.

This projection is supported by three key economic indicators:

1. Probability of Recession, which analyzes current economic data to predict recessions in the US (red area).

2. Smoothed Probabilities of Recession for the United States (Forecast) - obtained through a dynamic model applied to four monthly economic variables, including nonfarm payroll employment, industrial production index, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales (blue area).

3. Sahm Rule Recession, which is based on the increase in unemployment to signal the onset of a recession (dark blue area).

These indicators provide valuable insights into economic health and assist investors in making informed decisions amid a potential recessionary environment.

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