June 26, 2023
With the opening of CME on Monday morning, there is no gap in the daily chart. The reason for looking at the daily gap is that the daily gap seems to be the most intuitive and effective. From the current point of view, there is a gap between $21,150 and $20,300 on March 13, 2023 that has not been filled. According to Teacher Xiaomai's experience, the gap is generally most likely to be filled within the week. If it is not filled within the week, the time for filling it later is uncertain, which may be very long or very short, with no regularity.
By observing the long-term daily line, we can see that from 2020 to now, there are still two gaps on the daily line that have not been filled in the past three years. One is the 21,150 mentioned above, and the other is the gap from 35,300 to 34,500 on May 6, 2022. Of course, there is no conclusion yet on when it will be filled, but many gap theorists believe that the gap of around 35,000 will be what this rise can reach. Back to today's daily line, according to the rules observed before, this gap will most likely be filled within this week, but it cannot be ruled out that it will be filled in the form of a pin, which can be used as a reference for analyzing the trend in recent days.
Let's talk about the monthly settlement. This month's end is both monthly and quarterly settlement, and the amount of funds is indeed not small. This week is the settlement week. Although the Max Pain Price for settlement is 25,500, the price may not be near the Max Pain Price before the settlement at 16:00 this Friday. Although the current BTC's upward momentum is a bit insufficient, it is still above 30,000 US dollars. It will fall to the Max Pain Price by at least 10%. Although a 10% drop in four days is not an exaggeration for the currency circle, there has been no negative news in the past week that will cause the value to fall. If there is no human intervention, the probability of reaching the Max Pain Price on Friday is a bit low.
There is no key macro data to be released this week. The important core PCE news will be released after delivery. In addition, Powell will attend the European Central Bank Central Bank Forum Policy Group Discussion in Portugal. He will speak twice on Wednesday and Thursday. The content of his speech is unlikely to talk about the US interest rate hike in July, but considering that the eurozone is still continuing to raise interest rates, it is not ruled out that Powell will continue to speak hawkishly, but whether the market will pay attention depends on the trend of US stocks after the opening tonight. From the perspective of sentiment, it is still stable at present, and there is no large-scale bearish trend.
The recent good news has indeed stimulated users' emotions in the short term, but it has not brought about changes in liquidity. Combined with the lawsuit against Wintermute, it can be said that the blow to liquidity is even greater. It can be said that the beginning of the market only lacks a signal from the real "King of Wall Street" BlackRock to smash the cup and enter the market! In the currency circle, as long as there is good news, there will be fomo, but without liquidity and depth, all increases are fragile.