After the Dragon Boat Festival, a new week has begun. The market performance in the past few days is similar to or even stronger than what we described in our previous article. This week's various line indicators such as weekly, monthly and quarterly lines are in resonance. At the same time, there are multiple resonance points in terms of resistance, so the market may be relatively complicated. Judging from the calmness of the market over the weekend and the failure of yesterday's upward attack, today's performance is not outstanding. It only needs to smoothly pass the 5-day line closing, and the market can usher in a new upward trend tomorrow and the day after tomorrow to fight for the closing of the monthly and quarterly lines.
First, let's look at the daily chart. There was no upward attack yesterday, and today's biggest effect is to step back on the 7-day line. The positive line in the figure below may be a bit exaggerated, but combined with the 2-day line, 3-day line and 5-day line, it will not feel abrupt.
The resistance of the 2-day line is at the green 359 line, which is about 32700. This number needs attention. The daily line does not need to fluctuate too much today. Whether it is a positive cross or a negative cross, it is fine.
Because the 5-day line will close tomorrow, as long as it is a positive line entity, there is no big problem. Whether it is a positive line entity with a long upper shadow or a relatively large positive line entity, it is just a K-line in the transition stage. Because the next K-line will enter July, if June is dominated by positive lines, then the opening of July will continue to rise. Therefore, if the next 5-day line shows a large positive line, it is a very normal phenomenon. So at the close of tomorrow morning, today can rise a little appropriately, or it can end smoothly. The short-term focus is the resonance of the 2-day line and the 3-day line on the 28th. As mentioned earlier, the simulation of the daily chart may be a bit exaggerated, but it is still okay to combine observation. We just talked about the 2-day line, and now let's look at the 3-day line. The 3-day line needs a positive line, so that the three cycles of the 2-day line, the 3-day line and the 5-day line can be balanced, and it should be noted that this area is not only the resistance area of the time cycle, but also the resistance area of the space form. So it is normal to have a certain amount of shock, especially when the rise failed after noon yesterday.
If you look at the above picture carefully, you will find that this is not only a time period resistance area, but also a space pattern resistance area. Therefore, it is normal to have certain fluctuations here, especially when the upward breakthrough failed after yesterday noon.
This week also involves the closing of the monthly and quarterly lines, so let's take a look at them. There may be two situations on the monthly line: fast and slow. If it is a fast situation, the market will continue to rise for the rest of the month, forming a monthly triple wave (this is just a random name, please don't take it too seriously). In this way, July must be a big positive line, and it may even break through the 50,000 to 54,000 US dollar area. This trend requires that the positive line in June needs to break through the red 28 line, which is about 35,000 US dollars, so that the monthly line in July can continue to rise based on the 28 line. If it is a slow trend, this month will not continue to attack, but will maintain a trend similar to the parallel line, and the closing only needs to be above 29,000 US dollars, so that July can rise based on the light blue 43 line. This method is relatively slow, and the market may have to wait until August to break through above 50,000 US dollars. Whether it is a fast or slow trend, it is acceptable. These two different options will determine the different closing methods of the quarterly line.
If it is a fast trend, the market may refresh the historical high in the third quarter, because a relatively large Yang line will be formed in the second quarter, about 35,000 to 36,000. If it is a slow trend, as shown in the figure above, the K line in the second quarter will be appropriately withdrawn to form a cross star with a very small body, and the third quarter will be a Yang line with a small fluctuation, and the market may not refresh the historical high until the fourth quarter. No matter which trend it is, it is feasible and reasonable. The difference between the two paths is only whether the third quarter is the outbreak period of altcoins. If so, the market in the third quarter will create a good environment for altcoins, while large cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not suitable for continuing to rise strongly, and only need to remain relatively stable. If it is not an outbreak period, then Bitcoin and Ethereum can continue to rise, while the outbreak of altcoins will not be so obvious, which means that previous experience may change to a certain extent. In either way, everyone needs to maintain more patience. At the same time, it should be noted that the above is only a technical form deduction based on the current situation, which is for reference only and cannot be blindly superstitious. For the short side, there is no need to consider so much, just continue to suppress the market.
In terms of operation, the long orders from last week are still held. The long orders currently held include the long orders at the previous 16,000 USD and 20,000 USD lines, as well as the long orders established in the 24,200-24,800 USD area and the 1,626-1,675 USD area last week. The stop loss is set at the reasonable position of the break of 23,800 USD and 1,620 USD (the community also prompted the short-term long orders of 29,200-29,600 USD later). Today's long order operation is not very meaningful. Investors who want to operate can use the current 5-day line low point to break through the stop loss to set a reasonable small-band long order after the 5-day line closes tomorrow, or use the low point confirmed today to break through the low point to set a short-term long order with a stop loss. As for Ethereum, short-term operations need to pay attention to market uncertainties, so it is not recommended to conduct frequent transactions at present, but continue to hold the previous medium and long-term bands. For spot investors, more patience is still needed. At present, altcoins obviously cannot keep up with the pace of Bitcoin, but in the financial market, altcoins usually exist as speculative products, and their weakness can be reversed quickly, but it requires a certain market environment and relatively more patience.
In the article, we mentioned that different market trend choices will determine the closing method of the quarterly line. Whether it is a rapid rise or a slow fluctuation, each has its own rationality and feasibility. Investors need to make operational decisions based on their own risk preferences and trading strategies. At the same time, we also emphasized that the analysis in the article is only based on the current technical form deduction and cannot be fully relied upon. It is necessary to make judgments and decisions based on actual conditions. Investors should be cautious in their operations, make decisions based on their own circumstances and risk tolerance, and remain patient. We will continue to pay attention to market dynamics and provide you with more timely and accurate analysis and suggestions. #小韭社区 #合约锦标赛 #BinanceTournament #feedfeverchallenge #BRC20