Written by XiruDax

Source: tradingdax.es

Year:07/23/2022

#dax #Bitcoin #TradingAvanzado #Binance #Ethereum

Due to the poor results of recent weeks, a deep reflection and analysis is necessary:

After having had a great first quarter and seeing that I was finally able to win in a high volatility environment, I already thought that I had solid strategies to be able to win in any context in which the DAX was. But April and May arrived, months in which I began to make mistakes of not being able to make some very good entries and the volatility was very changeable so it was more difficult for me to see what type of strategies to use some days...but well I managed to close the 2 flat months. With June came my new debacle, to begin with my system lost during the first 3 weeks and I evidently lost more. I always win less than my system and when my system loses, I also lose more, a big problem I have is that I can't execute all the entries in my system (that's why I always look for increasingly solid strategies, because I count on myself to go to fail more) whether due to fear, laziness, confusion or not being able to be right at the moment the order is given in front of the screen.

Then, in the third week I managed to add something, but it was little... but the worst came in the last week, I was just on vacation and I had the opportunity to enter a short at 8:00 but I started looking for all kinds of excuses not to enter...and I didn't enter, just with that entry I would have recovered 60% of everything I had lost in the month. In the end, the month of June ended up being my worst month in almost 6 years…a real nonsense.

I started July keeping in mind that I couldn't miss any entry that my system gave me, but I made the mistake again of not entering a new positive entry that occurred on July 4th because it was a holiday in the USA, I thought there would be little movement due to the holiday. Then I made the mistake again of not seeing another good entry in time... conclusion, I won, but I only won 20% of what my system had given and it wasn't much.

The next 2 weeks in July my system lost again and, of course, I lost more. Furthermore, I was convinced that I had to be as disciplined as possible, so I went for everything and even some more forced operations than necessary. The result has been 2 very bad weeks in which I have already seen that the DAX has returned to power with me and I have had to give up since the losses have become unbearable for me. With a DD in Darwin close to -12% in the psyquation account -17% and in the most aggressive roboforex account (which I leverage twice) with -31.7% I have once again felt defeated by the DAX . The truth is that it is a strange feeling since I thought I would never feel like that again, due to the first great quarter and how every time I see that I have more solid strategies...but in the end if the market wants you to lose, you are going to lose! !

Here you can see how almost all of my profit for the year has gone away.

Obviously there are reasons for this debacle:

-Whenever I start to lose, emotions start to surface, whether it's fear or fear of not winning a very good trade, so I always trade a little more than necessary. They always tell me that I am very disciplined, and I almost always am, but when they are given poorly, I begin to fail more than necessary in this aspect.

– My high volatility strategies were designed in an environment like 2011 and 2020, in which the trends were very strong, both up and down. In the 1st quarter it was also like that, which is why I earned well and comfortably, but in the 2nd it has not been like that and there were many changes in volatilities which has made trading very difficult for me.

– Not having a clear design for some exits, sometimes I have had a good winning position and I have gotten caught up in wanting to win more and not seeing that I should have come out with some profit and not let myself lose.

– Not having strategies that would better take advantage of certain pieces of the trend that could be very profitable.

– In this environment of volatility the speed is greater so the time to make decisions, emotional recovery and the number of operations is much higher than the normal context, so it is also easier to make mistakes.

The solutions are:

-Regarding discipline, well, being more disciplined, I may have the appropriate discipline to be a decent trader, but I need more to have the discipline that a great trader must have. Obviously having an increasingly solid system helps to be so and after this debacle my system is going to be so, that will help a lot in this aspect. In the medium term I am thinking about automating my system, at least in a semi-automatic way or as much as I can because the truth is that I am tired of the fact that my performance is much lower than my system. It will not be an easy task because my system is very broad with many strategies and many details, but I am going to try.

-I have improved my strategies a lot, I have been able to see when to be more aggressive with shorts and when not to. I have also been able to include strategies that take the falls higher and not halfway, so they take better advantage of the falls. I have also included filters that help avoid certain losses and also improve the outputs, adding something before losing an entry when the market does not give much more.

-I have gained a lot of experience in this context of high volatility, my evolution, despite this destruction, is positive. In 2020 I was without trading for many months until I launched in May, but after winning 5 weeks in a row, I lost 5 weeks in a row and I was left with no idea what had happened. In December of last year, with omicron, I had a very bad week because I used high volatility when I had to. And this year I have already had continued experience with appropriate strategies (although not quite enough) and being able to experience firsthand what a market like this is like, also more complicated than in 2020 or 2011. The backtests are just backtests, the part It is difficult to then operate what has been backtested and see possible improvements or shortcomings in real time, in addition to the failures that one may have.

Conclusion: I have suffered one of those that make history, in fact, since the end of 2019 I have not had one so hard, but on the other hand my level of knowledge about the DAX and my experience in this type of context has taken a big leap , due of course to the blow that made me start studying everything to the fullest. It is precisely these bad moments that make you improve the most. I have already had to lower the leverage to 25% of the normal leverage to prevent the accounts from continuing to go down much more, above all I have to preserve the capital and wait for the DAX to align with my strategies again. We have to be patient and row again to recover the highs of the year to close it with a decent profitability.

The truth is that accepting that you have been defeated by the market again is a certain relief for me and very necessary to start again on the right path. I have already been through these moments many times and I know that I will win again and in a better way. solid than before.

See you at the market!