The latest on HK spot Bitcoin ETFs: They are confirmed to exist but have not been launched (yet). There are rumors it will start next week to avoid competing with the Dubai conference. Don't expect a lot of streaming (I saw a $25 billion estimate, that's crazy). We think they'll be lucky to get $500 million. Here's why:
1. HK ETF mkt is small, only $50 billion, and the Chinese public cannot buy them, at least officially.
2. The three approved issuers (Bosera, China AMC, Harvest) are too small. Big fish like BlackRock aren't in the mix (yet).
3. The underlying ecosystem is less liquid/efficient = these ETFs will likely see wide spreads and premium reductions.
4. Fees for these are likely to be around 1-2%. Nowhere near the cheap fares in the US 'Dome of Terror'
Takeaway: Other countries adding BTC ETFs are undoubtedly additive but penny-wise compared to the strong US market.
To be clear, all of this is clearly positive for Bitcoin because it opens up more avenues for investment, I'm just saying it's a piece of cake against the US. And in the long run, some of this may disappear: more liquid, tighter spreads, lower fees, and the involvement of larger issuers. However, we have more moderate expectations in the short/medium term. This much.
And yes, ether etfs are also approved! Our estimate for the total is $500 million.
-Eric Balchunas
