June 20, 2023 From the news perspective, we mentioned in Teacher Xiaomai’s sharing yesterday that the Fed will suspend interest rate hikes in June. According to current analysis, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in July is as high as 70%. In the stage of transition from interest rate hikes to suspension of interest rate hikes, the short-term sentiment during this period is favorable. However, it is necessary to distinguish between suspending interest rate hikes and skipping interest rate hikes, so if it is skipped, it will still have a certain impact on market sentiment, but if there is indeed no interest rate hike in July, coupled with no interest rate meeting in August, it is equivalent to no interest rate changes for three months. From historical experience, the risk market is almost unanimously in an upward trend when the interest rate hike is suspended for more than three months. Teacher Xiaomai speculates that although Powell’s speech on Wednesday night may not reveal the Fed’s interest rate hike plan in July, if it is too hawkish, it will inevitably increase the market’s expectations of a July interest rate hike, which is not friendly to the risk market. As for the expected issuance of US$100 billion in US Treasury bonds in June (the government’s cash balance is expected to be around US$400 billion at the end of June), the impact on the market is relatively small, and large-scale trillion-level issuance will be carried out in the second half of the year. There are still ten days before the delivery of monthly and quarterly options. If the price of 25,000 cannot be achieved before delivery, the bulls will win. Therefore, the long-short game should continue to intensify in the next few days. Participants must take stop-loss and risk control measures. Yesterday, after BlackRock submitted its application for a Bitcoin ETF, Fidelity was also considering acquiring Grayscale or applying for a Bitcoin spot ETF. It has a certain driving effect on the Bitcoin market. Recently, the currency market has been decoupled from the US stock market. When the US stock market rises, the currency market may not follow suit. This is because the price of the currency market is limited by liquidity. Before the liquidity problem is not solved, it is difficult for the currency market to restore complete independence. However, if the US stock market rises very well, the sentiment will be greatly boosted. Even if it is not good for the currency market, it is definitely not bad, which is better than the decline of the US stock market. From a technical perspective, today's highest rebound is 27179, close to the upper resistance range. Next, look at more and open fewer orders, reduce the frequency of transactions, and take appropriate profit-taking for spot or contract long orders. Observe whether the next 27380 is broken. You can try shorting with a light position at this pressure level.To summarize, hold the spot and pick up chips on dips. Take profit when the contract is close to 27380. 26000 is the support level. Buy at a low point when it touches 26000.
