The Fed's decisions are typically guided by its dual mandate of maintaining a strong job market and controlling inflation.
Raising interest rates is a means, not an end. The end is to reap the rewards, but when reap the rewards we must also consider ourselves. We can’t just keep using the Seven Injury Fist.
At present, considering the following factors
1. Inflation data: The U.S. CPI has fallen for 11 consecutive months, which means that deflation is very serious. If this trend continues, especially if the CPI continues to be below the Fed's 2% target, then the Fed may consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic activity and price increases.
2. Employment data: The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased in May, which is a positive economic indicator. However, the employment rate has risen significantly, which may keep the Federal Reserve on its guard. The fiscal pressure in the United States is still very large. If the unemployment rate continues to rise or employment growth slows down.
3. Global economic situation: The Fed will also consider the impact of the global economy. If global economic growth slows down in the second half of the year or the third quarter, especially if major economies such as Central Europe and Russia slow down, the Fed will have to consider cutting interest rates to counter the downside risks of the global economy. At present, it seems that it is unknown when the situation between Russia and Ukraine will end. Russia does not use US dollars for settlement and is still fighting hard. The Fed's interest rate hike has led to considerable pressure on the current domestic employment and economic situation. I believe you have experienced it yourself. Three provinces: Have wages been reduced? Have benefits been reduced? Has overtime increased?
4. Other economic data: In addition to the above three, the Fed also considers other economic indicators, such as consumer spending, manufacturing and service industry activities, etc. If these indicators show that economic growth is slowing, the Fed will have to cut interest rates.
It is really difficult to predict a specific time. We can only look at some comprehensive indicators to find clues, specific economic indicators and some regular time nodes.
for example
Annual quarterly meetings; the Federal Reserve holds four important policy meetings each year in March, June, September and December, and announcements are made at the meetings.
After the economic data is released: probably around October, the data will be integrated
Unexpected events: Unexpected global events (such as financial crises, large-scale natural disasters, or other major events that affect the global economy) may force the Fed to act early, but for now, things seem to be relatively stable.
In the stock market, the policy has already arrived. We need to wait a few more months to find the real bottom. There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. There will be a big market trend before the end of the year. #BTC #ETH
