When the real estate data for April came out, I said that this decline in both volume and price was just the beginning, and there would be a big drop in the future.

As expected, the decline gradually widened in May.

Second-hand housing prices in 100 cities fell 0.25% month-on-month and 1.52% year-on-year.

Compared with May 2022, it fell by 1.52%. At that time, many first-, second- and third-tier cities were closed...

Let’s take a look at the report from China Index Academy first.

In May, the number of cities where new and second-hand housing prices fell month-on-month among the 100 cities were 54 and 83, respectively, up 10 and 7 from the previous month. Among them, the number of cities where both new and second-hand housing prices fell month-on-month was 44, up 9 from the previous month.

The so-called 100 cities basically cover all first-, second- and third-tier cities in the country and are the most important real estate indicator in China.

The month-on-month decline in new and second-hand housing prices was much more serious than in April.

Let’s talk about the new house first.

The price of new homes in first-tier cities increased by 0.04% month-on-month, and housing prices were relatively stable; the price of new homes in second-tier cities stopped rising and turned to decline month-on-month, with a drop of 0.01%, and housing prices in half of the cities were in a state of decline; the price of new homes in representative third- and fourth-tier cities has fallen for 10 consecutive months, and the decline this month has widened to 0.05%.

New houses are different from second-hand houses. The investment attributes of new houses account for a higher proportion, so the city and location are still more important.

First-tier cities can remain stable, after all, resources are scarce.

There has been a decline in second-tier cities, but the decline is not large for the time being.

The prices of new homes in third- and fourth-tier cities continue to fall, and the market has been trying to self-regulate in order to squeeze out some of the water in small-city housing prices that were driven up by certain industries in previous years.

Oh, by the way, when buying a house in a small city, don’t buy a house in a certain park. Not only is it expensive, but the quality is also poor.

Also, don't buy pre-sale properties.

If a real estate project in a small city goes bankrupt, it is very likely that work will not resume.

We have talked about second-hand houses before, let’s compare them here.

It is obvious to conclude that the prices of new homes (not discussing the part where real estate developers secretly cut prices) are relatively stable, while the prices of second-hand homes are falling more and more sharply.

However, the report of China Index Academy did not increase the listing volume and trading volume. We will continue to look.

According to the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission's official website, 12,982 second-hand houses were signed online in Beijing in May, a month-on-month decrease of 6.8%. According to Maitian Real Estate data, the number of second-hand houses listed in Beijing in May increased by 3.7% compared with April.

The number of online signings of second-hand houses in Beijing fell 6.8% from April, while the number of listings increased 3.7% year-on-year.

According to a briefing from the Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association, the number and area of ​​second-hand residential properties signed online in Guangzhou in May were 8,771 and 880,600 square meters, respectively, down 12.65% and 11.93% month-on-month.

The number of online signings of second-hand houses in Guangzhou fell 12.65% compared with April, but the number of listings was not mentioned.

According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Information Platform, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen in May was 2,788 units, a month-on-month decrease of 12.66%. According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, as of May 29, there were 53,829 valid second-hand houses for sale in Shenzhen, a record high in a year.

The number of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen fell 12.66% from April, and the number of listings reached a one-year high.

Shanghai's data is counted on a weekly basis. In the first week of May, 2,685 units were sold, 3,935 units were sold in the second week, 3,489 units were sold in the third week, and 3,500 units were sold in the fourth week.

There are still three days of data to be counted, so let’s assume that the transaction volume for the whole month of May is 15,000 units.

The second-hand housing transaction volume in Shanghai in April was approximately 18,000 units.

A month-on-month decline of around 16.67% is expected.

This is the second-hand housing transaction situation in four first-tier cities.

I will not look up information for the second- and third-tier cities. Let’s wait until professional statistical data agencies provide complete data before we take a look.

Anyway, what I want to express is very clear.

The prices of new homes can still be held up for the time being, but pre-sale properties will have to bear the risk of real estate developers going bankrupt.

Second-hand housing transaction volumes and prices are falling rapidly, while listings continue to increase.

I still concluded last month:

The price and transaction volume of second-hand houses are the real tools to test market confidence.

There are more and more listings, but the transaction volume is decreasing.

In the stock market, this phenomenon is called "falling both volume and price."

It is a precursor to a major crash.

Of course, housing prices cannot fall as much as the stock market, and there will definitely be more people taking over than the leeks in the stock market.

But there are more and more people selling houses and fewer and fewer people buying houses. How can the price be maintained?