Yesterday we analyzed the short-term trend of ETH and concluded that there is no signal of stopping the decline and that it will continue to decline by inertia, which has been verified by the market trend.
The sharp drop in the past two days has made many people think that the bull market is over, and some people even say that Bitcoin will fall back to $20,000.
Now many people in the market cannot even distinguish the bull and bear cycles. In their eyes, the cycle of the bull and bear markets is at most half a year, and the bear market will begin after half a year of growth.
This reminds me of the beginning of 2022, when BTC rebounded to $48,000. Everyone was saying that the bear market was over and the bull market was about to come back, and then there was all kinds of crazy bottom-fishing, and in the end all this wave of people were trapped at the top of the mountain.
The transition from bull to bear market is a four-year cycle. No matter how the bear market rebounds, it is still a bear market, and no matter how the bull market pulls back, it is still a bull market. So this time it is just a pullback, not the end of the bull market.
If you can't even distinguish this point, don't even think about making money in the cryptocurrency world. Leaving early is the best protection for yourself.
Let’s analyze the short-term trend of SOL today.
The four-hour short-term trend of SOL is currently a downward trend, with the highs and lows gradually moving downwards. There is no stop-loss signal yet, and it will continue to pull back in the future.
Recently, the SOL ecosystem has been hyped up, and then SOL has also risen, attracting a lot of attention. Many retail investors have begun to chase the rise of SOL and the currencies in its ecosystem.
SOL fans are saying that SOL will surpass ETH and BTC, but anyone who has some knowledge and understanding of the cryptocurrency world will not say that. This sentiment reminds me of the scene of chasing the rise of BTC inscriptions last year, and the final outcome was that I was trapped.
In my opinion, this situation is already the eve of the coming storm, and risks are slowly beginning to emerge. At this time, we should remain rational. Those who have positioned SOL from the bottom should control risks at this point instead of increasing their positions.
The market value of SOL is now 600 billion. If it doubles, it will be 1.2 trillion. This is real money. The market does not have that much money, so the increase in SOL in a short period of time will not be too high. Those who chase the ecological rise will face risks.
The four-hour market changes very quickly. Short-term trading should be exited when profits are good. Don't let yourself be trapped because of greed. Short-term trading emphasizes capital utilization, so you must be willing to take profits and dare to stop losses, otherwise the meaning of short-term trading will be lost.
The above analysis only represents personal opinions and does not constitute any investment advice.
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