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breaking news:
• $AEVO – Aevo launches Ethena’s native token $ENA in its pre-release category
• $ALGO - Algorand will integrate Python on March 27th. • $COTI - Coti launches $10 million reward program to support v2 token launch.
• $CVC – Civic hints at a major announcement coming on March 26th. • $DMAIL - Dmail releases staking functionality.
• $FTM - Andre Cronje is back and actively promoting Fantom Sonic. • $ID - Space ID has launched the $ID staking feature. The first airdrop will take place in $ZK and the snapshot date and details will be announced soon.
• $PHB - Phoenix plans to launch GenAI image depth model this week. • $PYR - Vulcan Forged has announced that it will launch Staking functionality soon.
• $UNFI – Coinbase will suspend trading on the Unifi protocol on April 1. • $VANRY – Vanar hints at a big announcement tomorrow at GDC 2024.
Bitcoin will enter the “danger zone” before halving
In 2 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the “danger zone” and the historic pre-halving correction has begun
In the past, Bitcoin prices have fallen in the 14 to 28 days leading up to halvings. During the 2016 halving, Bitcoin fell by 40% and in 2020 it fell by 20%.
A "pre-halving rally" will occur approximately 60 days before the halving, followed by a "pre-halving retracement" approximately one to three weeks before the halving.
This prediction proved to be correct, with Bitcoin beginning to surge in mid-February and breaking through the previous cycle’s all-time high in March – the first time Bitcoin had done so before the halving event.
Peer-to-peer trading and the US dollar
To verify whether the drop in demand for leveraged long positions accurately reflects market sentiment, it is necessary to compare this data with demand for stablecoins in China, a key indicator of retail investors entering or exiting the cryptocurrency market. The USD Coin (USDA 1 USD) premium measures the difference between the value of USDC in peer-to-peer transactions and the official USD exchange rate.
The USDC premium has been above 3% over the past week, indicating that the stablecoin is trading above its peg. Most notably, this premium is not below its fair value even with the most recent price adjustment to $64,533 on March 17.
The trend points to continued demand for cryptocurrencies in Asia, supports positive Bitcoin funding rates that favor long positions, and shows no sign of a bearish trend or investor concern.
Market analysis
BTC: Grayscale reduced its holdings of 3,726 BTC on March 18, and Fidelity increased its holdings of 2,230 BTC. This shows that the selling pressure from Grayscale is still quite large, and the daily MACD is still some time away from the zero axis, which is enough to show that the downward adjustment is too early. As long as the current dip has not reached a new low, there is still a chance of an upward rebound. The rise before the adjustment is completed may be an oversold rebound rather than a reversal. Wait patiently for adjustments and stabilization.
The target position for downward testing will focus on the range of 61,150-59,500 US dollars. If it rebounds above, the target will be around 69,500 US dollars, and the ultimate rebound will be 71,400 US dollars.
News about the Fed’s interest rate meeting:
Many believe that investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on March 20 before deciding to invest more in cryptocurrencies, despite widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. The decision goes beyond short-term considerations and focuses on the Fed's confidence in the continued strength of the economy.
Another major uncertainty for Bitcoin investors is when the Federal Reserve will stop reducing its $7.5 trillion balance sheet. Generally speaking, a more expansionary monetary policy from the Fed means more money in circulation, which is good for risk assets.
A key week for risk assets will revolve around the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell.
The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends on March 20, which will serve as a classic catalyst for moves in risk assets.
Still, markets are expecting few surprises this time around - persistent inflation has eliminated the possibility of a rate cut, and even a subsequent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is not thought to reverse that trend.
The latest forecast from CME Group's FedWatch tool shows there is only an 8% chance of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting.
The above data comes from publicly available information, but no guarantee is made as to the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content does not constitute investment advice.
The market trends are changing rapidly, and you can seize the opportunities and trends by yourself!
