Time period
Cryptocurrency analyst Virtual Bacon said he expects to exit by the end of 2025, regardless of how the market performs by then. This time point is mainly inferred by him based on the Bitcoin halving cycle and the duration of historical bull markets.
From the data in the figure below from Glassnode, we can see that the last two bull market cycles also showed similar trends. For example, they both reached a temporary peak two years after the low point of the cycle, and then quickly plummeted into a bear market. The latest cycle (black line) is in an upward stage. If compared with the last two cycles, it may reach a new peak at the end of 2025.
Bitcoin 200-day and 21-week EMA
Virtual Bacon also suggested that investors should pay attention to Bitcoin’s 200-day and 21-week exponential moving averages (EMAs):
Once the price falls below these two lines, it means that market funds are withdrawing and a potential bear market is about to come.
From the chart below we can see that the current price of Bitcoin is still well above the 200-day moving average.
Bitcoin price and 200-day chart comparison
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart maps the evolution of Bitcoin prices over time, and uses colored strips to indicate whether Bitcoin may be close to a top or bottom. The closer the price is to the red area, the more likely it is to hit a top, and the closer it is to the blue area, the more likely it is to be close to a bottom. In the figure below, you can see that when Bitcoin prices enter the orange and red areas, the price tends to reverse sharply; and currently it is in the yellow "HODL" state.
Pi Cycle Top Indicator
The Pi Cycle Top indicator uses the 111-day moving average (111DMA, orange line in the figure below) and multiples of the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2, green line in the figure below) to predict the top of Bitcoin. When the 111DMA moves upward and breaks through the 350DMAx2 line, this is a possible signal that Bitcoin is at or near a top.
Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Google Search Trends
This reflects the public's concern for Bitcoin. Generally speaking, when the search popularity soars, it is one of the symbols that the bull market has reached its end. Many Chinese KOLs have also jokingly ridiculed on the social platform X:
When Chinese women start asking how to buy Bitcoin, it means the bull market is almost at its peak.
Will Ethereum (ETH)'s Cancun Upgrade Open Up Space?
Ethereum ETF Approval Probability Drops to 35%
On Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF expert Eric Balchunas reported that the odds of an Ethereum spot ETF being approved have dropped significantly over the past few months. Eric Balchunas shared the latest news with the cryptocurrency community on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter).
ETH spot ETF cycle is different from BTC spot ETF
Another Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, James Seyffart, also shared his thoughts on the matter. Seyffart added to Eric Balchunas’ insights, noting that “the probability of approval for an Ethereum ETF currently appears to be the opposite of that for a Bitcoin ETF.” Seyffart stressed that “as they observe and understand more about the situation, or as they observe and understand less about the situation, his optimism will wane.” Seyffart said that there are less than “73 days” left until the approval deadline, but it seems that no progress has been made.
It is worth noting that the decline in acceptance odds was also confirmed by Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market. Data from the platform shows that the odds of Ethereum ETF are currently 36%.
Should we stop profit in Cancun upgrade?
The answer is: NO.
Whether you hold contracts or spot, you should hold on to them firmly, especially when you buy cheap chips at low prices, you should hold on firmly and not sell them easily. Based on various data, including the market trend after each Ethereum upgrade, experts' views on cryptocurrencies, and the influx of funds, I judge that the possibility of a callback is not high.
The protagonists of the Cancun upgrade this time are Ethereum and the second-layer network, but this rise has hardly given the second-layer network a chance to perform. It has been completely overshadowed by other factors. Even the increase in on-chain games is higher than that of the second-layer network, which is strange in itself. If the good news does not come true, it may take until after the Cancun upgrade for changes to occur. Even if there is a short pullback after the Cancun upgrade, it may be an opportunity to get on board. I should not panic, but seize the opportunity to cover my position and buy at the bottom. This is a rare opportunity to get on board.
