#BTC # Will the Bitcoin halving lead to a bull market?

The Bitcoin halving does become an event that captures the attention of the market, and it usually occurs about once every four years. Past data shows that Bitcoin’s halving event did have a certain boost to the price, but it was not the only direct cause.

Market behavior is often driven by emotions and needs rather than rationality and accurate judgment. Therefore, for the Bitcoin market, predicting and interpreting market behavior is often full of subjectivity and uncertainty. Although cyclical theory may no longer be important, the needs and logic of market participants will still exert influence in the market.

In 2024, although the market is facing various variables, capital can use a variety of factors to construct scenarios, such as halving, ETF inflows, Bitcoin ecology and US dollar interest rate cuts, etc. The superposition of multiple logics may drive price growth and solve current problems. In this context, cyclical theory may come into play again.

Bitcoin halving schedule over the years:

In January 2009, starting from the genesis block, the system initially defaulted to 50 BTC.

In November 2012, the halving height was 210,000 and the reward after the halving was 25 BTC.

In July 2016, the halving height was 420,000 and the reward after the halving was 12.5 BTC.

In May 2020, the halving height was 630,000 and the reward after the halving was 6.25 BTC.

In May 2024 (estimated), the halving height is 840,000 and the reward after the halving is 3.125 BTC.