This bull market is really different from the past (3)
As I said above, ETFs are deterministic expectations, and certainty is also the biggest difference between this round and the two waves of 17 and 21.
For example, before 2017, you said that Bitcoin would rise. Apart from faith, what economic support did you have? For example, before the outbreak, who would have imagined that the economy would be so severely affected, circuit breakers were triggered four times, and central banks of various countries would release water to the death and provide a large amount of liquidity to the market? No, before those two big bulls rose, everyone was not sure that they would rise, because the policy did not support it, and because the liquidity was unknown, everyone only had faith and was at a loss, because it might really return to zero. Falling at an unimaginable price point. Next year, there will be certainty and liquidity. No one is at a loss, and there is even a consensus that a bull market has begun. This consensus has destroyed the premise that the previous two bull markets must be preceded by a deep decline, which occurs regularly. The external environment this time is really different from the past. Please don’t be desperate.
Regarding the halving, many people believe that the halving is the driving force for the increase in the value of Bitcoin. I think, correct, but not entirely correct. Halving can indeed affect the supply and demand relationship, but it does not have a causal impact on price increases. Does the halving mean that it must be a big deal? Should the demand increase if the supply is low? Not necessarily, the reduced narrative effect is far greater than his economic effect. If there is a halving, it should rise. There are so many halving coins in the bear market, but no one can drive the market to great heights like Bitcoin. It is even difficult to double. The real big pusher must be liquidity. External funds enter the market, close to internal funds, and only rely on internal funds. If everyone is cutting leeks from each other, it will not last long.
In addition, let’s talk about the 21 wave of bulls. Why is there such a wave of bulls? I said that the 2021 wave was because there was an epidemic first and then there were big names. Because if there was no epidemic, there would be no big releases, there would be no liquidity entering the currency circle, and there would be no big bulls like those in 2021. 312 was purely an accident of the epidemic. The unexpected result was a global flood, which brought liquidity and big names. Please look at history and laws dialectically.
