This bull market is really different from the past (2)
If you want to say that ETFs come out and smash the market to death, I will believe it if it hits 8,000-10,000, because before that, there was no certainty and liquidity, retail investors were not firm in their beliefs, and capital was not focused. But now, there is certainty and more liquidity will definitely come. From retail investors to institutions, from the military to the air force, smashing the market is not in the interest of everyone. Retail investors will take over if they want to cross strata. Institutions that are on the bus but not on the bus will take over if they want a piece of the pie. Multi-party companies want to join the big cows to make money. The Air Force, hehe, they are not gods. If they go against the interests of global institutions, capital, and retail investors, they will only die.
So don’t expect anything less than 30,000 this time, because there are capital and institutions that are not on the train, and they are more eager than you to have a little cutie to use their chips to smash the market. Under the premise that certainty and liquidity are now available, they are still willing to do it. Charity picks them up in the car.
So I think the most I can do is hit 3.2-3.4, maybe the kind that inserts pins, to scare away the unsteady leeks. I think the greater probability is to raise the price to more than 40,000 and then trade sideways. Because of this, the head maintains its lead and does not hand over chips to people who are not on board, thus preventing more capital from sharing the cake. Because today, when the certainty is so clear, the more severe the correction, the heavier the market will be. Proper washing of the market is good for health, and whoever washes the market excessively will lose money. Today, when the certainty is so clear, everyone has a consensus to jointly sell the market. Even 3.2-3.4, I think it is just a pin, the most explosive contracts.
Why do I say that there is a high probability that the price will reach 40,000 and not look back? Because the price above 40,000 is a psychological threshold for retail investors. If you pull the price up, retail investors will think it is an opportunity, but if it is pulled too high, you will not think it is an opportunity, but more like a risk. They will question themselves, if they keep up, will they be too FOMO? Anyway, the pattern in history is that there will be a final drop. Sooner or later, they can get on the train, so they should not take over at a high position. They may even think that if it goes up, let it go up, and I will stand still, because history is the law, the law is the truth, and the truth is that there will be one last deep drop, and I will definitely be able to get on the bus at a low position. Therefore, pulling it above 4w can effectively prevent retail investors from taking advantage of FOMO.This is the psychology of retail investors.
