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If it stands firm here, there is a high probability that it will hit a new high and hit the short stop loss order above, and then it will fall sharply and quickly complete the correction. The yellow one above is a big piece of meat.
#BTC
#ETH
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自1/22行情启动以来,btc的强势一飞冲天,2次意外的强势上涨,2/7突破、2/26突破,两次突破均是UTC+8的23点以后启动, 无疑是打开了更大的上升空间,这一波回调看5.8w和5w的支撑,调整完毕可以看到8.9w。但是一个很明显的现象在比特币这一波从23/5/1以来比较明显的特征,波动率在3%以下维持了10个月(见图2)属于历史上第一次在3%以下这么长时间(红框),以往的牛市往往波动率都在3%以上(黄框),甚至在22/6/20之前波动率都在3%以上,所以一个客观体验就是操作更难了,行情一旦启动没及时进场就错过,然后就是长时间的窄幅横盘,加密市场的特点就是24*365的连续性,谁也不知道在哪一刻行情会来,只能等待,最大的成本就是时间成本。 可以预见的是,随着行情的推进,价格的攀升,波动率会突破3%,这一轮大牛,现在还看不到顶。#BTC
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反弹二次进空入场,昨日凌晨大级别回调开始,可能以盘整完成,或者干脆一波快速下跌完成。2波趋势上吃肉没赶上,尽挨打,脑壳痛。#BTC #ETH
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观察突破目标区域t1-t3的过程,是否是大力度,如果是5点方向慢跌,就还可以来回当盘整搞;如果是瀑布,先挂限价目标区域,极端行情往往1分钟就是3-10%的波动幅度,往往来不及挂单也成交不到好价位。目前来看,正在一点点打开向下空间,空方占优势地位,一旦推下破位,可能会加速下跌。 #BTC #ETH
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若反弹起来就是最佳2次进空入场,很可能是瀑布前的最后一个盘整,BTC下降趋势已经出来,ETH还没有走出下降趋势,可能直接高位瀑布。 #BTC #ETH
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如果破位有较大概率实现20%左右的快速暴跌。 #BTC #ETH
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