I finally found a reason to convince you trolls. I refuse all refutations. I am only talking about high probability events.

Let’s talk about the halving. The following content is the top content of my friend @CryptoJunShao’s Twitter. I borrowed it to explain.

♦$BTC is at the final stage of the halving period

❶. Pre-halving period

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is about 5 months away (it’s now 2 months)

Judging from the historical trend of BTC halving, the callback events that occurred during this period will often bring relatively objective benefits to investors within a few months after the halving (this wave of increases reflects the value of benefits)

❷.Halving period

In the two to three months before the halving, a pre-halving rebound usually occurs. In order to anticipate the halving, investors work hard to promote "BTC buying speculation" (ETF events, etc.), and take advantage of the market's FOMO period to slowly lay out shipping routines.

❸.Temporary lookback period before BTC main wave

Pre-halving backtracking often occurs during the halving event itself

In 2016, the retracement depth of BTC before the halving was approximately -40%

In 2020, the lookback depth of BTC before the halving is approximately -22%

According to the correction before the halving, investors would question the rising momentum after the halving, and unsteady holders were washed away one after another.

❹.The chips are accumulated again

The pre-halving correction was followed by a period of several months of shock, and chips were re-accumulated.

For the boring shock period and the first half of the callback period, we will eliminate those who are not firm believers. After the halving, BTC investors will feel disappointed and once again clean out the unsteady investors, and then make the final wave of shuffling for the main Shenglang. .

❺.Main Shenglang Uptrend

Once the upward trend of Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation zone, it will frighten the investors who were washed off before. They will be hesitant to get on the bus, and short selling will become their only "belief".

The market's FOMO sentiment has reached a climax again, and a basin of cold water is quietly coming.

The top of the next cycle is "likely" to be between September 2025 and October 2025 (around 518 or 548 days after the halving in April 2024 → conclusion based on historical period speculation)

Note: This is not investment advice and I do not accept all trolls’ random comments. I only accept reasonable explanations and raise reasonable questions and I will answer them.