#热门话题 #内容挖矿 #sats $1000SATS 2023 will definitely be a saving grace for Bitcoin miners.
It provides a necessary second chance for an industry weakened by the 2022 downturn, but as 2024 arrives, miners begin to face another huge challenge, the fourth halving. Bitcoin's fourth halving will reduce Bitcoin's block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, meaning miners' earnings will be reduced by 50%.
Like past halvings, the 2024 Bitcoin halving will undoubtedly leave an indelible mark on the current Bitcoin mining market.
Although the third halving (2020-2024) is not a direct trigger, with China’s Bitcoin mining ban in 2021 and the subsequent large-scale migration of computing power, the three are one and the same. The formation of a completely different mining market during the second halving period (2016-2020) created conditions.
We believe that the fourth halving will bring about even greater changes and may be accompanied by a redistribution of Bitcoin hashrate to new geographic regions. For 2024 and the following years, we (roughly) predict the following:
Bitcoin computing power distribution is more global
North America’s dominance of computing power will weaken. During the second halving period, China dominated the Bitcoin network’s computing power share, accounting for 70-90% of the total computing power at its peak. After China imposed a ban on Bitcoin mining, this balance of power shifted to North America, with the United States and Canada together accounting for about 50% of the world's hash power share (fluctuating left and right) from the summer of 2021 until now.
North America's share of global computing power share is expected to have peaked and will gradually decrease after the halving in April 2024, as miners' profits will be compressed and they will continue to search for cheaper electricity, South America, Africa and other untapped regions will have significant growth opportunities.
The retail hosting services industry will take a major hit
In North America (and elsewhere), the retail custodial services industry is headed for a downturn as lower mining profits squeeze both custodians and customers.
Average all-inclusive hosting rates in 2023 will be $0.078/kWh in the United States and $0.072/kWh in Canada; by Q4 2023, average all-inclusive rates will be $0.078/kWh and $0.071/kWh, respectively hour.
Given the post-halving mining economics, miners with average or higher hosting costs will likely not be able to remain profitable, meaning that only those with favorable rates will survive in 2024.
2024 will spawn more mergers and acquisitions
In an environment of compressed computing power prices, there will be more mergers, acquisitions and asset sales in 2024 and 2025.
In fact, the prelude to 2022 has already been played. As the price of computing power plummeted and reached an all-time low in Q4, one of Bitcoin's largest custody service providers, Compute North, declared bankruptcy and liquidation, and Argo and other mining companies conducted asset sales.
Financial distress in 2023 did not see much asset buying and acquisition activity, but it saw the largest merger in Bitcoin mining history – Hut 8 and US Bitcoin. Asset acquisition activity in 2024 is expected to match or exceed 2022 levels.
Inscriptions and other block space utilization activities will continue to increase transaction fee revenue
Inscription activity and alternative uses of block space in 2024 will bring transaction fee levels to levels comparable to or higher than the average in 2023.
The biggest dark horse of 2023 is entering the market on the back of Bitcoin's new technical standards based on non-fungible tokens (NFT) - ordinal numbers and inscriptions. This new method of creating digital art and artifacts on Bitcoin makes transaction fees an important source of mining revenue.
In fact, the total amount of Bitcoin transaction fees in 2023 is only the second-lowest in Bitcoin history; miners earned $797,867,915 in transaction fees in 2023, second only to the record-breaking $1,019,725,113 in 2021. Transaction fees will account for 7.6% of block rewards in 2023, compared with only 1.5% in 2022.
Inscription activity generated $188 million in transaction fees between December 2022 and the end of 2023, with miners earning $129.5 million in Q4 2023 (69% of total fees). In addition, miners’ earnings in the fourth quarter of 2023 were 63% of the total transaction fee rewards in 2023 ($501.8 million).
If Bitcoin continues to rise this year, expect Inscription activity transaction volume to continue to increase in 2024.
Bitcoin Mining Stocks Could Lose Their Price Premium
Historically, investors have traded Bitcoin mining stocks as high-beta plays on Bitcoin, using them both as Bitcoin alternatives and as assets capable of generating outsized returns when Bitcoin rises.
According to the beta chart analysis below, Bitcoin mining stocks show their correlation trends in bull or bear markets. In a bear market, stock price fluctuations are more closely related to daily currency price fluctuations. In a bull market, stocks have strong upside returns relative to Bitcoin because they have a strong beta correlation with Bitcoin. Traders can get a better handle on returns by observing Bitcoin miners' closer correlation with daily fluctuations in Bitcoin's spot price. When this trend is up (>1.15 beta), Bitcoin miners are shifting to stronger reward periods.
