Did we get it wrong predicting $JUP's rise to $1? It seems so at a glance, yet not entirely. Our initial understanding didn't fully capture the novel launch mechanics at play. The demand was clear, with $125m driving $JUP to $0.7. Normally, such a launch would have seen the price targets met.
However, the outcome was different due to JupiterExchange's pricing strategy. By setting explicit DLMM price parameters, it inadvertently capped trader enthusiasm at $0.7. This level marked the end of DLMM liquidity, theoretically allowing for significant price exploration.
Significant trading took place off-exchange, notably on WhalesMarket, with HGEABC securing about 9 million tokens. JupiterExchange's abundant liquidity provision dampened any sharp price movements, favoring accumulators but not traders or volatility enthusiasts.
A hypothetical $1m USDC buy-in shows a stark difference in slippage between JUP (1.32%) and PYTH (32.7%), illustrating how, under normal circumstances, $125m could have significantly elevated JUP's post-launch price.
Key takeaways include:
- The launch strategy worked as intended, ensuring fairness and transparency in the token debut.
- With the upcoming removal of JupiterExchange's DLMM pools, the circulating supply will adjust, potentially boosting the token's value whether it stabilizes above $0.7 or drops below $0.4.
- Expect bullish announcements, possibly about staking, as JupiterExchange seeks to maximize its funding before the DLMM pool's withdrawal.
- The return of market volatility post-DLMM pool removal should attract traders back, increasing volume and possibly kickstarting a significant price rally.
I'm holding onto my airdropped shares, seeing potential ahead.
