Thoughts on the next bull market:
17-year bull market: a bull market led by whales, large investors, and exchanges. The 21-year bull market: a bull market dominated by institutions, policies, and releases. Regarding the next round of bull market, I think there will never be the same magnificent scenes as the last two times. At least Bitcoin will not rise too much. Because at the beginning of the next bull market, I haven’t thought about what effect will be driven by it. Maybe some small countries or even some big countries will accept Bitcoin as one of the national reserve assets. Apart from this, I can’t think of other effects. With the number of Bitcoins that can be mined, There are fewer and fewer, and the effect of the halving every four years will become less and less. The currency circle actually needs a new narrative and highly consensus currency like Ethereum to surpass Bitcoin. Personally, I prefer the market value of Ethereum. Beyond the big pie, only in this way can the story be better continued, because smart contracts, defi, nft, etc. have implemented too many applications on Ethereum. Is compliance really suitable for Bitcoin? In fact, any asset in the world requires compliance, legality, and rationality. Different countries have different governance methods, ranging from money printing management to betel nut. Some countries have classified betel nut as a first-level carcinogen. Some countries are still open to purchase, and each country’s attitude towards things is also very different. Bitcoin was born during the financial crisis and has always been under the slogan of decentralization and non-sovereign currency, but has it really been achieved now? Obviously not. In the early days of Bitcoin, the place where the crazy spread was the most intensive was the Silk Road, because it was a place that conformed to the concept of Bitcoin, and it was also the birthplace in my concept. It is obviously impossible for today’s Bitcoin to continue to operate according to the concept of decentralization, but I vaguely feel that there will be a bright star rising in anonymous coins in the future, once again focusing on the simple four words “decentralization”. I think two situations are needed to see the previous bull market: 1. A new king ascends the throne and continues to tell new stories (such as Ethereum) 2. More than 30% of countries in the world define Bitcoin as a national strategic asset reserve. The realization probability of the first situation is obviously easier than that of the second situation, but the biggest pain point of Ethereum is that V God is still there, and the founder cannot form decentralization. The second situation depends on the attitude of Laos and the United States. As long as Lao and the United States express their stance, it is estimated that 50% of the countries in the world will keep up. The current currency sector is falling apart. This is also a concern of mine. The strong ones are too strong and the weak ones are too weak. Waves can be seen everywhere. In fact, there are only a few sectors that are truly needed. Most of the hot spots you see now will be within five years. In the end, 99% will disappear. Because there are too many sectors, investment is becoming more and more difficult, and the wealth effect will be lower and lower. In five years, the difficulty of making money in the currency circle should be no less than that of cancer stocks. The above is my guess for the next round of bull market. As the wealth effect decreases, I hope that everyone who pays attention to Lao Zhang can find his or her own Noah's Ark and accumulate more wealth in a limited time. Only by mastering enough wealth can we cope with it. any future situation.
