#BTC Reasons for the rise PS: The US weekend was full of bad news, and some people were optimistic about SVB, but I think that its collapse does not have much impact, but other small banks of similar size will not have an easy time. The comments and opinions in the weekend review are exactly as expected. The top 19 banks collapsed, ran, and went bankrupt, just like the theme stocks of A-shares, which are more affected by emotions.

1. If the top 100 small banks are fine, and the remaining 90 are all run on, what will happen? Can the Fed cover all of them? Of course not. At most, it will set up a liquidity fund to deal with the run, and then accelerate the exchange of their loss-making long bonds for short bonds, or sell long bonds to big banks at super low prices. Who will pay? What if the Fed can't print enough money?

2. Back to the core of this problem, the excessive rate hike, the first point is to immediately stop the pace of interest rate hikes in March, let the interest rate of short-term debts fall steadily, and reduce the inversion of long-term and short-term debts. Increase the circulation pool, linear withdrawal of small bank deposits, and finally kill the trick, usher in the first interest rate cut after the interest rate hike cycle. (Even if it is a 25-point cut) is also a kind of emotional stability, making those who make money from the inversion of long-term and short-term debts unprofitable.

3. Gold is approaching its high point this year. The rise of gold is purely a risk aversion sentiment in the market. Gold is good in troubled times. Bitcoin is approaching its high point this year. The logic behind the rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum is that the core of financial centralization, banks, have finally suffered a backlash and run under the benefits of centralization (endless money printing). Then decentralization has become the solution.

4. The core of decentralization is BTC. The collapse of stablecoins and the run on BTC all show that in centralization, the low returns and high risks (run on zero) brought by stability are better placed on BTC. FOMO sentiment may eventually be like the last run on USDT.Pushed up to 30-50% until market sentiment dropped, but the BTC platform also took the opportunity to break through, and it was difficult to come down again

5. The previous Fed's rumor about stock speculation is no longer feasible. If there is no actual measure to stop or slow down the interest rate hike, then no matter how large the circulating fund pool is, it will not be able to withstand the panic run. If the final result is really to stop the interest rate hike in advance, or even cut the interest rate, then BTC will not fall and continue to be the choice of funds overflowing from the interest rate cut. Therefore, it is difficult to return to the short-term low of 20,000. Please be cautious when shorting.