Monday A-shares trend forecast: reviewing historical major events to determine the direction of the market change

On Monday, a highly anticipated major press conference will take place, and the market's perception of its impact is noticeably divided: one side believes that if the conference does not exceed expectations, A-shares may face downward pressure; the other side points out that the current market is already at a relatively high level, and even if positive news is released, a pullback may occur. So, how will A-shares perform after this press conference? Let's first review the trends during several similar key historical points.

Looking back at five historical market turning points related to major press conferences or policies:

1. September 24, 2024: A joint press conference was held, marking a key turning point for A-shares from a bear market to a bull market.

2. November 8, 2024: The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut and held a press conference, leading the market to a temporary peak.

3. January 10, 2025: A comprehensive debt restructuring plan was implemented, along with adjustments to housing deed tax and other policies, pushing the market to a temporary bottom.

4. January 23, 2025: A press conference was held at 9 a.m.; although A-shares fluctuated on that day, it subsequently began a significant rally.

5. May 7, 2025: A press conference at 9 a.m. announced related news of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, leading to a market rebound that was followed by a significant rally.

From these five historical market trends, it can be seen that four of the major events drove the market to form turning points at lows, with only one instance of positive news being realized.

Regarding the A-share trend next Monday, some opinions suggest that the market has recently seen a significant increase, and after this conference, it may easily lead to a realization of positive outcomes. However, this view is not valid, as A-shares have not shown an upward trend overall since September but have mainly been in a state of fluctuation, especially as the weighted sectors like brokerages, banks, and insurance have remained in a state of adjustment. Therefore, in summary, it is highly likely that after this press conference, A-shares will welcome an upward turning point.