In the volatile market of the cryptocurrency sector in the third quarter, Chainlink (LINK) has undoubtedly become one of the most dazzling stars. As the leading project in the blockchain oracle field, LINK not only achieved the strongest quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2021, but also, thanks to its technical breakthroughs, institutional collaborations, and solidified industry position, is expected by analysts to challenge the high range of $100-125, providing investors with a rare market observation window.
I. Quarterly Increase of 82.5%: Key Signals Behind the Strongest Momentum in Four Years
In the third quarter of 2024 (July 1 - September 30), LINK closed with an astonishing increase of 82.5%. This figure not only far exceeds the performances of Bitcoin (about 23%) and Ethereum (about 35%) during the same period, but also marks the best quarterly performance in four years since the first quarter of 2021 (when the increase exceeded 150%). As of the time of writing, LINK's current trading price is stable around $24.50, just a step away from the key resistance level of $25.30 — a price level that has never been effectively broken since the peak of the bull market in October 2021, becoming the core 'neckline' that the market focuses on.
From a technical perspective, this rise is not accidental. LINK successfully broke through the 25-month and 50-month moving averages in the third quarter, which are regarded as important indicators for judging asset trends; dual breakthroughs mean that the market's bullish sentiment has formed a strong consensus, and the medium- to long-term bullish momentum has been further confirmed. Trading data shows that after breaking through the moving average suppression, LINK's trading volume has significantly increased, with the average daily trading volume from July to September increasing by about 60% compared to the second quarter, indicating that incremental funds are continuously entering the market, providing sufficient momentum for price increases.
For the current resistance level of $25.30, the market generally believes it has significant strategic importance. If LINK can achieve a monthly closing price above $25.30 this month (the last month of the third quarter), it will form a technical pattern of 'breaking through and holding the neckline', which not only breaks a price suppression that has lasted for three years but may also open up space for subsequent challenges to new highs in many years (the peak in 2021 was around $52). Well-known trader Javon Marks pointed out in a recent analysis: '$25.30 is not only a price resistance but also a watershed for market confidence; once broken, the short-term target can look towards $47.15, and if momentum continues, the mid-term target of $88.26 is also not out of reach.'
Second, 45-month cup handle pattern: technical logic for the target price of $100-125.
In addition to the short-term moving average breakthrough, what attracts the market's attention about LINK is its 'cup handle pattern' formed over 45 months (about 1370 days) — a classic bullish pattern in technical analysis that usually indicates that an asset is likely to start a significant upward trend after undergoing a long-term adjustment.
Specifically, the 'cup body' of this pattern formed between October 2021 and November 2023, during which LINK fell from a high of $52 to a low of $6.5, a decline of over 87%, completing a full adjustment; while the 'cup handle' part was gradually constructed from November 2023 to September 2024, with prices oscillating around the $10-20 range, washing out a large number of short-term speculative chips. According to the target price calculation formula for the cup handle pattern (usually 'height from cup bottom to neckline + neckline price'), if calculated with a cup bottom of $6.5 and a neckline of $25.30, its theoretical target price could reach $44.1; however, considering that this pattern has lasted for 45 months (far exceeding the usual 6-12 months), analysts generally believe that its upward space will be further expanded, with the final target price possibly falling in the range of $100-125, representing a potential increase of up to 415% from the current price of $24.50.
On-chain data also supports this technical forecast. By the end of the third quarter, LINK's exchange forex reserves had fallen to 158 million coins, the lowest level since June 2022. The decrease in forex reserves indicates that market selling pressure is continuously declining, with more investors choosing to transfer LINK from exchanges to personal wallets for long-term holding; this 'coin hoarding' behavior is often a precursor signal for price increases. In addition, LINK's staking volume has also steadily increased in the third quarter, with 6% of the supply currently staked; the rising staking rate not only enhances network security but also reduces market circulation volume, further supporting the price.
Third, institutional support + industry monopoly: fundamentals solidify the bullish foundation.
If the technical aspect is the 'fuse' for LINK's rise, then the fundamental aspect is its long-term bullish 'ballast'. Since the third quarter, Chainlink's two breakthroughs in institutional cooperation and industry position consolidation have completely reversed the market's concerns about its 'lack of growth'.
On the one hand, the accelerated layout of institutional tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has made Chainlink's oracle technology a core infrastructure. In mid-third quarter, Chainlink announced a collaboration with UBS Group and the Asian digital asset platform DigiFT to launch a pilot project for automated tokenized fund operations in Hong Kong — through Chainlink's Digital Transfer Agent (DTA) contract, UBS can map traditional fund assets to tokens on the blockchain and achieve automatic clearing and dividend distribution, significantly enhancing asset circulation efficiency. This collaboration not only represents the first large-scale adoption of Chainlink technology by traditional financial giants but also aligns with Hong Kong's recent policy direction to promote the landing of tokenized products, opening up a broader institutional market space for Chainlink.
On the other hand, Chainlink's monopolistic position in the oracle market has been further solidified, forming an unshakeable 'moat'. Data shows that Chainlink currently guarantees 83% of the total collateral value (TVS) in the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for 67% of the entire oracle market, equivalent to the total market share of the second to tenth places. By the end of the third quarter, Chainlink had protected $93 billion of on-chain value globally, supporting over $25 trillion in trading volume, and connected over 1,000 active data sources across more than 260 blockchains — these data not only reflect the stability of its technology but also highlight its 'infrastructure' position in the blockchain ecosystem. Notably, in the first quarter of 2025 (forward-looking data), Chainlink's data flow throughput is expected to grow by 777%, indicating that its technological applications are accelerating penetration, and future market demand is expected to further expand.
Fourth, breaking through key resistance levels is critical: how to observe subsequent trends?
Although LINK's current bullish logic is clear, the market still needs to pay attention to the breakthrough of the key resistance level at $25.30. Analysts remind that if this price level cannot be broken in the short term, LINK may face a pullback pressure, with support levels to watch at $20 (near the 25-month moving average) and $18 (near the 50-month moving average); if it can successfully break through and hold above $25.30, it will subsequently challenge $35 (the 2022 high), $47.15 (short-term target of trader Javon Marks), until it impacts the long-term target of above $100.
For ordinary investors, it is necessary to view LINK's upward trend rationally: on the one hand, its dual benefits of technical patterns and fundamentals indeed have long-term investment value; on the other hand, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the target price of $100-125 needs to undergo multiple cycles of verification, so do not blindly chase highs. It is recommended to combine personal risk tolerance, layout in batches, and closely monitor the progress of institutional cooperation and changes in technical patterns.
Pay attention to the old east of cryptocurrency, and will continue to track LINK's price dynamics, the implementation of institutional cooperation, and changes in industry policies, to bring you more timely market interpretation and investment reference, helping you grasp quality opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
