Brothers! Today we're not talking about vague things, let's directly reveal the bloodiest secrets of the cryptocurrency circle—
Why do you always lose money in a bull market and get deeply trapped in a bear market? Why do others eat meat while you only have soup, and sometimes you can't even have soup?
The answer lies in the funding rates that 90% of retail investors simply cannot understand!
In the first half of 2025, the liquidation volume of BTC perpetual contracts skyrocketed to 21.8 billion USD! What’s even more heartbreaking is that 72% of the liquidation orders were trapped in the "extreme value" trap of funding rates!
This is not metaphysics, it's the "clear strategy" of the big players cutting leeks. Today I will take out the (funding rate survival guide) from the bottom of the box, and after reading it, you can avoid 90% of the pitfalls!
One, funding rate: the 'life and death compass' of the crypto circle
First, highlight: the funding rate is not a numerical game, it's the 'thermometer' of the long-short battle!
1️⃣ Bullish signal: Rate greater than 0.03% (annualized 11%), the bulls are about to 'net'!
Before BTC surged to 60,000 dollars in March 2024, the funding rate suddenly soared to 0.08% (annualized 29%)! How many people shouted 'going for 100,000' and chased longs? As a result, a week later, it plummeted by 30%, and those who chased highs were directly stuck until 2025!
Remember: short-term rate surging greater than 0.03%, it's not that the bulls are strong, but the dealer is secretly offloading through long positions!
2️⃣ Bottom signal: Rate less than -0.05% (annualized -18%), the bears are about to 'flip the car'!
When ETH fell to 1200 dollars in 2022, the funding rate plummeted to -0.12% (annualized -43.8%)! At that time, the screen was full of cries of 'ETH going to zero', but what happened? A week later, it violently rebounded by 50%, and those who bottomed out made a fortune!
Remember: deeply negative rates + market panic are not the end times, but the dealer is secretly accumulating!
3️⃣ Death spiral: Rate greater than 0.05% + position size surge = massacre countdown!
In February 2025, during Trump's tariff incident, the BTC funding rate directly surged to 0.12% (annualized 43.8%), and the position size surged by 40% in three days! How many people thought 'we're going to hit a new high'? As a result, 1.88 billion dollars were liquidated in a single day, and the exchange's servers were overwhelmed!
Remember: rate + position size double kill, hurry and run, don't hesitate!
Two, three tricks to understand the funding rate: from being cut to making a profit!
✅ Arbitrage killer skill: the 'lazy profit formula' of over 15% annualized
When the BTC funding rate is greater than 0.02% (annualized 7.3%), buy spot + sell contracts, directly lock in risk-free profits!
Practical case: In April 2025, operating under this strategy, the annualized rate directly reached 15.98%! But remember: transaction fees must be less than 0.16%, otherwise it's all in vain! (Choosing the right exchange is very important!)
✅ Bottoming out killer skill: ETH exclusive 'golden pit' signal
ETH rate less than -0.05% (annualized -18%) + KDJ bottom divergence = close your eyes and bottom out!
When ETH's funding rate was -0.07% in April 2025, the KDJ indicator showed a bottom divergence. At that time, it bottomed out at 3000 dollars, and a week later rebounded to 3900 dollars, directly earning 30%! (Use other altcoins cautiously, ETH has the most stable liquidity!)
✅ Escape the top operation: BTC greater than 0.04% three times = run!
At the peak of the bull market in 2021, the BTC funding rate was greater than 0.04% for three consecutive days (annualized 14.6%), and many people shouted '100,000 dollars is not a dream', but what happened? Then it plummeted by 50%, how many people got liquidated at the peak!
Remember: three consecutive high rates, the dealer is about to run away, hurry and liquidate!
Three, a must-read guide for retail investors: these 'traps' must not be touched!
⚠️ Don't believe 'low rate = safe'!
SOL's funding rate in January 2025 was -0.09% (annualized -32.8%), it seemed like it 'couldn't drop anymore', but what happened? The dealer took the opportunity to dump, and it was directly halved! Low rates might be 'boiling frogs in warm water'!
⚠️ Don't touch 'rate inversion' altcoins!
DOGE funding rate 0.001% (almost zero) but plummeted by 90%, this is a typical 'rate inversion' - calm on the surface, but the dealer is secretly selling! As for the altcoins' rates, just take a look, don't take it seriously!
Four, current market warning
⚠️ BTC rate 0.012% (annualized 4.38%) → Beware of 'bull traps'!
It may seem like the rate is low now, but with shrinking trading volume, the dealer might be quietly laying out 'bait for the bulls', don't rush into long positions!
⚠️ ETH rate -0.008% (annualized -2.92%) → Bear 'squeeze critical point'!
When the rate nears 0, it indicates that the bearish power is almost exhausted, a rebound may happen at any time; wait a bit if you want to short, and if you want to bottom out, you can try a small position!
Five, tomorrow's operation strategy (just copy the homework!)
1. Bitcoin: 116,000 is a strong resistance level! If the rate is greater than 0.015% (annualized 5.48%), go short directly!
2. Ethereum: Below 3500 dollars, rate less than -0.005% (annualized -1.82%), close your eyes and bottom out!
3. Altcoins: Rate greater than 0.02% (annualized 7.3%)? Stay away! There's a 90% chance the dealer is going to cut the chives!
Lastly, here's a funding rate 'life-saving mantra' for everyone:
Rates soaring to the sky lead to death when chasing highs, rates diving to the ground lead to madness when bottoming out; watching rates in the long-short battle, retail investors will no longer step into pitfalls!
Follow Mai Zi, sharing the most hardcore survival tips in the crypto circle every day, giving you a chance to turn from 'being cut like chives' to 'reaping a bountiful harvest'!#BNB突破1000 #美联储重启降息步伐