The market is not chaotic. It is cyclical - especially when it comes to Bitcoin. Cycles still work - but not in a pure form anymore.
The market has become more complex. Previous halvings have shown a stable structure: growth, decline, accumulation. And if we look at the numbers, the current cycle is already close to the phase where the probability of a reversal increases.
Against the backdrop of the Bitcoin ETF launch, the growth of TVL in BTCFi, and institutional inflows, the cycle structure may be softer. The peak may be wide rather than sharp — like in 2021.
🔍 Cycle structure based on past phases:
- 📈 Growth Phase (from halving to peak): median — 75 weeks
- 📉 Decline Phase (from peak to bottom): median — 53 weeks
- 🧊 Accumulation Phase (from bottom to the next halving): median — 74 weeks.
Given this data, based on the median of previous cycles, the peak of the current cycle may occur at the end of September 2025 — around the 27th.
And if we look at the average value — the peak may already be behind.
The cycle is not a traffic light, but a radar. It does not say 'stop', it shows that it is time to be alert.
🧠 What does this change for the trader
- If you are waiting for 'one more pump' — you may already be late.
- If you are building a long-term position — the filtering phase begins.
- If you are working by cycles — now is the moment for revision, not accumulation.
🧭 Why is this important
- The cycle is not a guarantee, but a guideline. It does not predict, it limits.
- The median is not the maximum, but a point where the probability of reversal becomes higher than continuation.
- And if you ignore the structure — you are trading in the dark.
📌 Conclusion
September is not just a month. The cycle is not a sentence, but neither is it an illusion. It does not provide answers — but poses the right questions. And September 2025 is one of those questions.
#BitcoinHalving #marketstructure #CycleTiming #BTCanalytics #write2earn
