Mentioning the 'prophet' of encryption and the macro market, the views of BitMEX's former CEO Arthur Hayes always carry weight—this figure who accurately predicted the 2023 Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts triggering a small crypto bull market and the 2024 spot ETF pushing BTC to break $60,000, recently published an article in his Substack column, throwing out a more long-term optimistic judgment: 'The upward cycle of global asset markets (including crypto) will continue until 2026. This is not merely a speculative frenzy, but an inevitable result of liquidity, institutional allocation, and regulatory transparency resonance.'
Hayes' predictions are never based on "vague slogans," but are anchored in specific macro indicators and market data. The core logic can be broken down into "three major supports + one major risk," each point of which can find real evidence in the current market.
1. The core logic supporting the bull market: from "liquidity injection" to "institutional real money entry."
Hayes emphasized that the underlying driving force for this round of asset increases is "multiple favorable factors stacking up," rather than a single factor. This can be verified from three dimensions:
1. Central bank easing cycle: "Interest rate cuts + balance sheet expansion" working together, the liquidity feast has not stopped.
Hayes pointed out in the text that "the monetary policies of global central banks are the foundation of the bull market," and current data indeed supports this judgment:
Federal Reserve: As of October 2025, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by 125 basis points, with the current federal funds rate falling to a range of 3.75%-4%. Additionally, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the market expects two more rate cuts of 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, with the final rate possibly falling to 2.75%-3%. More critically, the Federal Reserve has restarted its "balance sheet reduction pause," expanding its balance sheet by $80 billion quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, ending the previous 18-month continuous reduction, equivalent to injecting incremental liquidity into the market.
European Central Bank and Bank of Japan: The European Central Bank has cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, with the deposit facility rate falling to 1.5%. It also launched "targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO)" to provide low-interest loans to Eurozone banks. The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy rate at -0.1%, with the scale of quantitative easing still at 80 trillion yen per year, adding to global liquidity.
Hayes specifically mentioned: "This round of easing is different from the 2020 pandemic stimulus; it is 'anti-recession easing' - although the economies of various countries have not collapsed, growth is weak (the global GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.8% in 2025), and central banks are reluctant to tighten easily. This 'mild easing' will last longer, providing more sustained support for asset prices."
2. Institutional allocation shifts: from "cautious trial" to "large-scale increase."
The shift in traditional institutions' attitudes toward alternative assets (including crypto) is another key basis for Hayes' optimism about the 2026 market, and there is clear data to support this.
The fixed income market has "lost favor": the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell from 4.5% in 2023 to 3.2% in October 2025, with the real yield after inflation being only 0.8%, the lowest since 2020; the yield on 10-year German bonds fell to 1.1%, significantly weakening the "preservation and appreciation" function of traditional bonds, forcing institutions to seek new directions.
Alternative assets "attracting funds": According to Bloomberg data, by 2025, global institutional allocation to alternative assets (stocks, commodities, crypto) has surpassed $12 trillion, a 45% increase from 2023; among them, the allocation ratio of crypto assets rose from 0.5% to 1.8%. Only five U.S. pension funds (such as the California Public Employees' Retirement System CalPERS) have included crypto in their investment portfolios, with a total allocation of $18 billion.
Institutional actions in the crypto sector: Hayes specifically mentioned BlackRock's dynamics - its Bitcoin ETF holdings increased from 50,000 units when approved in 2024 to 180,000 units in October 2025, and it plans to launch a "Bitcoin + Ethereum mixed ETF" in 2026, aiming to raise $5 billion; additionally, Goldman Sachs launched a "crypto asset custody + derivatives" package for private banking clients, with this business's revenue growing by 210% year-on-year in Q3 2025, confirming the real growth in institutional demand.
3. Regulatory transparency: from "disorderly chaos" to "clear rules."
"Regulation is no longer an obstacle but a catalyst" - this is Hayes' judgment on the current crypto regulatory environment, contrasting sharply with the "regulatory winter" of 2022:
United States: The SEC has approved 12 Bitcoin spot ETFs and clarified that "Ethereum does not constitute a security." In Q3 2025, regulatory details for digital asset derivatives were introduced to standardize futures and options trading, providing institutions with "clear rules to follow."
European Union: The MiCA law came into effect in 2025, implementing classified regulation for stablecoins and crypto asset service providers (CASP). As of October, 38 crypto institutions have obtained MiCA licenses, including Binance Europe and Coinbase EU.
Asia: The comprehensive implementation of the Hong Kong (Virtual Asset Service Provider Regulations) allows licensed institutions to provide crypto trading services to retail investors. In Q3 2025, the average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong crypto market reached $8.5 billion, a 67% increase from last year.
Hayes believes: "Clarification of regulation has eliminated the 'biggest concern' for institutions to enter - in 2023, institutions were afraid to touch crypto due to the fear of 'being compliant today and illegal tomorrow.' Now that the rules are clear, they can confidently invest real money, which is the key premise for the continued bull market in crypto in 2026."
2. Market verification from 2024-2025: asset linkage rises, crypto has not been absent.
Hayes' predictions are not "castles in the air"; the market data from the first half of 2024 to Q3 2025 has already verified the rationality of his logic:
1. Traditional assets: stock indices and commodities rise in unison.
Global stock indices: In the first half of 2024, the S&P 500 rose by 18%, the Nasdaq rose by 25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 12%. The driving factors were "corporate earnings exceeding expectations + easing expectations" - net profit growth of S&P 500 constituents in the U.S. in 2024 is projected to be 12%, with consumer demand contributing 60% (the U.S. retail sales in the first half of 2024 increased by 4.2%).
Commodities: Gold rose to $2,500 per ounce in the first half of 2024, setting a historical high, and stabilized around $2,450 in October 2025, becoming the preferred choice for both "anti-inflation + safe-haven" dual demand. Copper prices rose from $3.8 per pound at the beginning of 2024 to $4.5 per pound in October 2025, reflecting expectations of a global manufacturing recovery, consistent with Hayes' judgment of "moderate economic growth."
2. Crypto market: BTC, ETH "steady rise," on-chain indicators improve.
Although the volatility of the crypto market is higher than that of traditional assets, the overall trend aligns with Hayes' predictions:
Price performance: Bitcoin rose from $42,000 at the beginning of 2024 to $55,000 in October 2025, an increase of 31%; Ethereum rose from $1,800 to $2,200, an increase of 22%, with both experiencing a pullback of no more than 20%, significantly improving compared to the "halving volatility" of 2022.
On-chain health: The proportion of BTC's "long-term holders (holding for over 1 year)" increased from 62% at the beginning of 2024 to 68%, with selling pressure continuing to decrease; ETH's DeFi total value locked (TVL) increased from $95 billion at the beginning of 2024 to $128 billion, with Layer 2 ecosystems (such as Arbitrum, Optimism) exceeding 10 million daily transactions, reflecting growth in real application demand rather than mere speculation.
3. Risk warnings: Hayes sees "two major potential variables."
Optimism does not mean blind faith. Hayes also clearly mentioned two potential risk points that could break the bull market, which investors need to be vigilant about:
1. Central bank policy "sharp turn": easing suddenly halts.
This is what Hayes considers the "biggest risk" - if global inflation rebounds unexpectedly in 2026 (for example, if oil prices soar to $150 per barrel due to geopolitical conflicts), the Federal Reserve may be forced to restart interest rate hikes and tighten liquidity. Currently, the market's pricing probability for such a scenario is only 15% (CME FedWatch data), but it is necessary to closely monitor inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI. If these indicators exceed expectations for three consecutive months, it will be necessary to reassess the bull market logic.
2. Geopolitical "black swans": systemic shocks.
Hayes mentioned that current trade tensions (such as frictions in the U.S.-China technology sector) and regional conflicts (such as the situation in the Middle East) have not yet caused systemic impacts on the market. However, if they escalate into "comprehensive sanctions" or "military conflicts," it could trigger a sharp decline in global risk appetite, leading to widespread asset declines. For example, the Red Sea crisis in 2024 caused oil prices to surge by 8% in one day, while Bitcoin fell by 5%, indicating that the "safe-haven linkage" between traditional and crypto assets has formed, and geopolitical risks need to be closely monitored.
4. Investor advice: Hayes' "diversified allocation" strategy.
Based on the above judgments, Hayes provided specific allocation recommendations for investors, rather than "hollow slogans":
Asset allocation: It is recommended to keep the proportion of "traditional assets (stocks + bonds + commodities)" at 70%-80%, with "crypto assets" accounting for 10%-15% (of which BTC, ETH, and other mainstream coins account for 80% of crypto allocation, and small-cap coins do not exceed 20%), avoiding excessive concentration in any one area.
Key indicators: macro-level closely monitor "Federal Reserve meeting minutes (to judge easing pace)" and "10-year Treasury yield (liquidity barometer)"; on the crypto side, focus on "institutional ETF holding changes (such as BlackRock BTC ETF net inflows)" and "on-chain fund flow (to see if there are large-scale sell-offs)";
Operational discipline: In a bull market, one must "take profits and avoid losses" - for example, setting a "20% pullback stop loss" for BTC to avoid getting off the train due to short-term fluctuations; at the same time, set "staggered profit-taking" for the profit portion (e.g., take profit of 20% if it rises by 30%, take profit of 30% if it rises by 50%), to ensure safety.
5. Conclusion: The "core of the bull market in 2026 is structural opportunity."
Hayes' predictions are not that "all assets rise," but that "valuable assets continue to rise" - among traditional assets, stable profit tech stocks and inflation-resistant commodities have more potential; in crypto assets, mainstream coins (BTC, ETH) backed by institutions and compliant projects (such as USAT, CRO) are more worthy of allocation, while air coins like MTP will still be eliminated by the market.
The current market is in a favorable environment of "mild easing + institutional entry + clear regulation." However, to seize opportunities in 2026, one must abandon the fantasy of "getting rich overnight" and adopt a strategy of "macro perspective to choose the direction, micro data to select targets." This is also the core logic that has allowed Hayes to establish a foothold in the market over the years.
If you want to track Hayes' latest views in real time, interpret the impact of macro data on the crypto market (such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, changes in institutional holdings), and obtain specific strategies for asset allocation in 2026 (such as adjustments in the ratio of crypto to traditional assets), you are welcome to follow Dong Ge on crypto - here we will combine Hayes' analytical framework to break down the logic behind each market fluctuation, helping you not to miss opportunities in the bull market and avoid pitfalls, sharing more exciting content on the linkage between crypto and macro markets.
