Last night at 20:30:01, that second really made one’s heart race! Once the CPI was announced, the global market almost took a dive, but in the blink of an eye, the entire market suddenly turned red, with U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and bonds all soaring together, it was like a financial carnival.
Many people are still confused: inflation is higher than expected, isn’t that bad news? Why is the market all in the green?
The old cannon will analyze it for you—
First, the market figured it out in just one second
Although the CPI is high, it cannot suppress the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. The real core is another piece of data: initial jobless claims surged to a four-year high! What does this mean? It means that employment is starting to falter. With weak employment, the Federal Reserve is even more reluctant to hold firm, and the market immediately provided an answer: stop worrying about inflation; the expectation of rate cuts is fully on, and there are people willing to bet on three consecutive cuts in September, October, and December.
So in that second, the market switched from 'about to crash' directly to 'about to party,' brushing past the plunge.
Second, different assets, different logic, but all point to 'rise.'
U.S. stocks: continue to act optimistic, telling the story of 'rate cuts + growth can hold on a bit longer.'
Bond market: Directly targeting the collapse of employment, calling out 'hurry up and cut rates' in advance.
Bitcoin: No need to say much, the liquidity carnival is its main stage, three weeks of continuous new highs directly blow up the shorts.
Gold: Nobody believes it, but it remains steadily at historical highs.
Third, this is a battle of scripts.
The market is still self-indulging, pretending to believe in a 'soft landing.' But the old player sees clearly that the accumulation of bad news is increasing, and it will sooner or later turn into the hammer of 'recession.' Right now, it is actually the final carnival phase of 'bad news = good news.'
The old player reminds everyone not to be dazzled by the fireworks in front of them. The market is good, but the wind is also tight. Every piece of employment and inflation data coming up will determine whether this party is just starting or has already reached the curtain call.
Conclusion: Bitcoin's short-term consumption is liquidity expectations; the stage belongs to us. But remember, this is not a risk-free feast, but a bubble carnival built on bad news. If you can eat, eat, but don't go wild with your positions; the next time, 'in a second,' you might not be able to pass by.
If you can't find the right position in the current market, why not follow the bulls with their playstyle and the bears with their perspective, and become the final winners together.
