🔎 Relevant recent data

1. U.S. CPI (September 2025)

It was reported that the monthly inflation ·of consumer prices· (CPI) rose ~0.4% in August, more than expected (0.3%)

In year-on-year terms, inflation (CPI) stood at ~2.9%, matching expectations; core inflation also aligned with estimates.

Although inflation came in line with expectations, the higher-than-expected monthly rise raises concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates soon or may maintain a more restrictive monetary policy.

#CPI ,#cpi

2. Planned token unlocks for September

Several projects are expected to release locked tokens, some with 'cliff unlocks' (large sudden release) that can significantly increase circulating supply, which generally exerts downward pressure.

In the second week of September, there is more than US$ 513 million in tokens unlocking, including large cliff unlocks like CHEEL (~US$55.8M), APT (~US$48.2M), Sonic (~US$45.6M).

Projects also with linear unlocks (which distribute tokens more gradually) that soften, but do not eliminate risks.

#CPIdata ,#CPI_DATA ,#UnlockAlert

⚠️ Why these two combined factors can generate sudden movements

Expectation vs reality in inflation: if the CPI comes out stronger than expected, markets may react negatively (risk assets like crypto) due to fear that central banks will keep interest rates high for longer. If it is weaker, it may generate optimism and a rally.

Relationship with monetary policy: high inflation → less likelihood of rate cuts → less liquidity for risk assets. The opposite if inflation is low or stabilizes.

Liquidity and supply: token unlocks introduce more supply, which can saturate demand if not accompanied by strong buying flow. This can amplify drops.

Event timing: when unlocks coincide with macro data release dates (such as CPI, PPI, Fed decisions), two factors come together that can trigger volatility because many participants react at the same time.

$BTC

✅ Plausible scenarios

CPI higher than expected + large tokens unlocked: Negative reaction: drop in altcoins, possible pullback of BTC/ETH, preemptive selling — corrections between −5% to −15%.

CPI in line or lower + controlled unlocks: Rally, especially in assets that showed strength, as interest rates could drop sooner; unlocks could be absorbed more easily.

Positive macro data but surprising or larger unlocks: Big noise, erratic movements: first drop due to supply, then rebound if demand responds.

🎯 Currently, the risk of sudden movement is medium-high. Markets are already very focused on the CPI and there are many tokens ready to unlock. If the macro data comes out as a 'somewhat bad surprise' or worse than expected, we could see strong corrections in altcoins, even in solid tokens. If it comes out well, it could reinforce upward movement for those assets that were already in a positive trend.