The first person to publicly hold 2.6 million altcoins, having experienced two bull markets, breaks down the core logic of altcoins during interest rate cut cycles with practical experience — don’t be misled by short-term fluctuations; the rhythm has already been written in the market.
1. First, break the core question: How will altcoins perform after interest rate cuts? Will there be an explosion in September?
The current market has already released clear signals: Altcoins are establishing a brand new bottom. However, the expectation that “September interest rate cuts = direct explosion” is not realistic; the real trend will follow the rhythm of “oscillation and accumulation → slow rise → main wave” as detailed below:
1. September: The starting point of interest rate cuts, the main tone is consolidation and washing.
September, as the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle, is likely to see altcoins primarily undergo 'consolidation and accumulation,' rather than directly exploding.
Trend characteristics: Prices oscillate repeatedly, with frequent spikes, moving 'extremely uncomfortably' up and down within a range, for example, a certain mainstream altcoin may fluctuate between $0.8 and $1.2, constantly testing investors' patience.
Core logic: Smart capital will not rally at the beginning of interest rate cuts — instead, it will use consolidation to wash out the floating stocks that are 'afraid of falling and lack patience,' while quietly collecting bottom chips to build strength for the subsequent market.
Key reminder: Don't panic at spikes! Many people hand over their chips at the sight of short-term corrections, which only becomes 'fuel' for the main force to accumulate. The current consolidation has not broken key ranges, so there's no need for excessive interpretation, and definitely don't recklessly cut bottom positions.
2. October: Bottom confirmation, slow rise begins.
Entering October, altcoins will transition from the 'consolidation period' to the 'slow rise period':
Trigger conditions: After the September accumulation is completed, the market bottom is basically confirmed, capital no longer intentionally suppresses prices but gradually pushes them up to avoid triggering a lot of following orders.
Leading varieties: mainstream altcoins and projects with clear narratives will start first, forming the 'prototype of profit effect' to attract outside capital to gradually enter the market.
Trend characteristics: The increase will not 'happen all at once,' it may rise 3%-5% every day, and only after 1-2 weeks will significant profits appear, testing investors' patience to 'hold onto their chips.'
3. November: The main upward wave arrives, and the real harvest period begins.
November is the key node for altcoins to 'explode,' and it is also the 'main upward wave window' verified through two bull markets.
Market characteristics: Most altcoins enter the 'accelerated rising' stage, with daily increases reaching 10%-20%, and even consecutive limit-up situations, wealth effects fully spreading.
Core logic: The liquidity easing brought by interest rate cuts gradually transmits to the altcoin market, coupled with sufficient previous accumulation and concentrated bottom chips, capital only needs to exert slight force to push prices to soar, which is a typical stage of 'volume and price rising together' in a bull market.
Two, the most critical operation: how to escape the peak? Which months will be the peak?
The core experience from two bull markets: escaping the peak does not rely on 'guessing the peak point,' but on 'signal judgment'; the peak is not in a 'fixed month' but when 'emotion and data resonate.'
1. Peak time prediction: Highly likely in late December, rather than on a fixed day.
From historical patterns, the peak of altcoins during the interest rate cut cycle will not be earlier than the November main upward wave, nor later than January of the following year, and is likely concentrated in late December.
Support logic: The main upward wave in November attracts a large number of retail investors to enter, market sentiment peaks in December, capital speculation nears its end, and then gradually enters a correction.
Eliminate misconceptions: Don't get tangled up in 'which specific day the peak will be reached' — the peak is a 'range' rather than a 'point,' for example, a certain altcoin may oscillate between $5 and $5.5 for 3-5 days before beginning to correct; capture the 'range escape peak' instead.
2. The 3 core signals for escaping the peak; reduce positions when 2 appear.
Escaping the peak does not require 'precise prediction,' just keep an eye on 3 actionable signals; when any 2 appear, initiate a position reduction:
Signal 1: Community sentiment is 'extremely enthusiastic' — people around you who never trade cryptocurrencies start asking 'which altcoins to buy,' social media is full of 'profit showcases,' and even mentions of 'borrowing to trade altcoins' appear, indicating the market has reached the 'greed peak.'
Signal 2: Trading volume is 'abnormally high' — a certain altcoin's daily trading volume suddenly reaches more than three times the recent average, accompanied by 'price stagnation,' indicating that the main force is 'pulling and unloading.'
Signal 3: Key indicators show 'divergence' — daily RSI exceeds 80, and while the price hits new highs, the RSI does not, and MACD shows a 'death cross,' clearly indicating that 'upward momentum is exhausted.'
3. Escape peak strategy: reduce positions in 3 batches, without pursuing 'selling at the highest point.'
The core of escaping the peak in a bull market is 'locking in profits,' rather than 'selling at the absolute peak.' It is recommended to reduce positions in 3 batches according to the '3-3-4' principle:
First batch: Reduce positions when one escape peak signal appears, locking in some profits to avoid 'full position missing the correction.'
Second batch: Reduce positions again when two escape peak signals appear; at this point, it is highly likely that you have entered the peak range, further reducing risk.
Third batch: If the price continues to hit new highs, but all three signals appear, directly liquidate the remaining positions, without being greedy for the 'last wave of profit.'
Three, the pits to avoid most at this moment: don’t let these mistakes ruin the profits of the bull market.
At this stage, worse than 'missing out' is 'making basic mistakes', especially these two types of operations:
1. Don't touch leverage! Spike trends can 'swallow all principal.'
During the September consolidation period, spikes are frequent, and a single large bearish candle can liquidate all 5x or 10x leveraged positions — what you think is 'bottom fishing' is actually delivering 'liquidation fees' to the main force. Lessons learned from two bull markets: those who rely on leverage to 'quickly double' in a bull market will ultimately see 90% return to zero due to a single spike; holding cash is the most stable assurance.
2. Do not operate frequently! 'The one who does not act wins' is the truth of the bull market.
The ones who truly make money in a bull market are not those who frequently chase highs and kill lows with full positions every day, but those who 'hold onto their chips firmly at key positions and do not move.' For instance, during the September consolidation period, if you frequently switch altcoins, you may misstep each time; while holding onto 1-2 high-quality altcoins until the November main upward wave can actually allow you to enjoy the complete segment.
3. Timing to add positions: wait for the 'big correction,' not the 'small spike.'
If you want to increase your position but find it insufficient, don’t add recklessly during the 'small spike' in September — wait for the real 'big correction,' or wait until October's slow rise confirms before adding, which can reduce costs and avoid 'adding positions at the high point of consolidation.'
Four, Summary: Patience is more valuable than operation; if the rhythm is right, you win.
The trend of altcoins after the interest rate cut is already clear: September is for consolidation and accumulation, October for slow rise, November for the main upward wave, and late December for the peak.
The most important thing to do now:
Hold onto your spot, filter out the noise of 'calls' and 'profit showcases,' and don't be misled by short-term emotions.
Remember the 3 signals for escaping the peak, closely monitor the market in late December, and reduce positions in 3 batches.
Stay away from leverage, avoid frequent operations, and let 'time' become your greatest advantage.
A bull market is not a game of 'getting rich overnight,' but a contest of 'rhythm and patience' — you can only catch the wealth of the main upward wave if you can endure the loneliness of the consolidation period.
