The meeting of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) of the USA, scheduled for September 16-17, 2025, becomes a key moment for global markets. Experts from U.S. Bank, Reuters, and Investopedia analyze the dynamics before and after the event, considering weak labor market data and inflation at 2.7%.
Before the meeting, the market shows tension: after the July rate hold at 4.25-4.50% (the fifth in a row), the August employment report showed minimal job growth and unemployment at 4.2%. This lowered Treasury yields to a 5-month low, and the probability of a 0.25% rate cut rose to 87%. Stocks are fluctuating: the S&P 500 reached new highs but then fell by 1-2% due to recession fears. The cryptocurrency market, sensitive to monetary policy, sees Bitcoin at $100,000+, anticipating a boom from easing. Inflation remains "somewhat above target," and Trump's tariffs add uncertainty. Experts like Rob Haworth from U.S. Bank note that the weak labor market outweighs inflation, pressuring the Fed to act.
After the meeting, a turnaround is predicted: a rate cut will stimulate growth by lowering borrowing costs. Futures on rates anticipate 2.5–3 cuts by the end of 2025, which will support stocks and crypto. However, if the Fed holds rates, a drop of 5–10% is possible, as in July. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the data: the August CPI (September 11) will be crucial. Experts from PIIE warn of a "dilemma" — pressure from the Trump administration for rapid cuts, but risks of overheating. Overall, the market is preparing for easing, but with volatility.
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