Trading is a form of practice; regardless of win or lose, the outcome is fair to everyone.

It's like a game of snake, for us retail investors, the starting level is about the same. Are you going to eat others or be eaten by others? Everyone will ultimately find themselves in an ecological niche that matches their own abilities!

Many people argue endlessly about long-term versus short-term, I think this is meaningless. Short-term and long-term are like two legs of a person; you can't have one without the other!

In a bull market, theoretically, long-term investment definitely makes money, but can you judge the highs and lows of the cycle? Can you hold on to a fully invested long position? In a bear market, theoretically, short-term risk is definitely lower, but can you grasp every buying and selling point? First of all, no one can absolutely predict the transition between bull and bear markets, so the above questions are full of loopholes when discussed purely!

It's difficult for anyone to discuss the pros and cons of short-term and long-term trading and reach a suitable conclusion. I will share my views on this matter for everyone's critique! When we comprehensively judge that the market is at the end of a down cycle or the beginning of an up cycle, long-term positions can be entered. As for the amount to enter, it should be based on the capital that you can afford to lose; I personally suggest around 3 layers of positions, which also includes reserving part for additional purchases! If it rises, we can enjoy the exponential growth of wealth in a bull market!

If the market declines, do not panic or be at a loss because you are fully invested! Short-term positions should not be small either; in a bear market, aim for a 3-point gain, while in a bull market, you can raise the profit expectation to between 8 and 15 points for speculation. If it turns out not to be a bull market, short-term trading can still provide some support.

Short-term trading also has the benefit of enhancing traders' market sense and increasing sensitivity to market changes! (This short-term trading includes both spot and contracts; choose the method that suits you best.) Short-term trading can be done in bear markets, so why not in bull markets? A 100% increase can allow short-term experts to achieve a 300% profit, which is not impossible!

Short-term and long-term trading is like a person’s two legs moving alternately. If one leg hops, it not only tires you out but also won't take you far! These two points are just prerequisites; how far you can go based on this depends on your ability. The crypto space itself is a place where the weak are preyed upon by the strong. It is natural for wolves to eat sheep; all mistakes made by a person are unrelated to the market, they are all their own mistakes. For the issues we often mention in daily life, such as missing opportunities, being trapped, or selling too early, I believe solutions can be found in the arrangement of positions!

Here are some opening suggestions for everyone:

Option one: Fixed position ratio

You decide to adopt a fixed position ratio strategy. This means you will allocate the same proportion of funds in each investment, whether it is a low-risk or high-risk trade. For example, you might decide to control each trade's position to 5% of your total funds. This ensures that you do not over-invest and maintain consistency in risk management.

Option two: Variable position ratio

You decide to adopt a variable position ratio strategy. This means you will adjust the size of your positions based on the risk and potential return of each trade. For low-risk trades, you might allocate a larger proportion of funds, while for high-risk trades, you might allocate a smaller proportion. This allows you to respond more flexibly to market fluctuations and adjust accordingly.

Option three: Dynamic position management

You decide to adopt a dynamic position management strategy. This means you will adjust the size of your positions based on market conditions and your investment goals. If the market is in a state of high uncertainty, you might decrease your positions and conservatively manage risk. If the market trend is clearly upward, you might increase your positions to pursue greater returns. This allows you to respond more flexibly to market changes and make corresponding adjustments based on the situation.

The above are several common position management strategies. You can choose one based on your risk tolerance and investment goals. No matter which strategy you choose, remember that reasonable position management is one of the keys to successful investing; it can help you balance risk and return and protect your capital from excessive exposure.

Here are my summarized trading phrases, along with my personal insights:

When trading old coins, always choose the top brands * Top brands include not only BTC and ETH but also leading coins from different tracks, such as the anonymous coin Monero.

When trading new coins, prefer well-known brands * A well-known brand refers to high popularity and recognition, as well as investments from renowned investment institutions, which helps avoid junk coins.

Try to avoid domestic coins * Domestic coins are often subject to trends or short-term speculation, lacking innovation and filled with junk coins.

Quickly enter and exit outdated coins * Old coins that have experienced a round of bull and bear markets often have many trapped positions above and may suddenly surge after long lateral movements, but it's best to enter and exit quickly. Instead of trading such coins with insufficient characteristics and low popularity, it’s better to trade new coins.

In a bull market, go long and not short * Go with the trend; although there may be pullbacks, they can recover, making going long the least risky option.

Holding coins in a bull market can lead to miracles * In a bull market, it's suitable to hold coins rather than fiat; earning more coins means earning more money.

In a bear market, shorting is preferable to going long * In a bear market, it is better to go with the trend; although there may be rebounds, the probability of continued decline is greater, and one should not easily go long before seeing a bottom.

Capital safety is the most important thing * In a bear market, it should be fiat-based, as the price of coins often drops by more than 90%, so ensure your capital's safety.

Don't pay too much attention to the truth or falsity of news * News is always flying around, true or false, and should not be too trusted. Moreover, the news seen is often delayed.

Everyone reacts to determine long or short positions * If there’s good news but no rise, look bearish; if there’s bad news but no decline, look bullish. One cannot assume that good news means a rise and bad news means a decline.

Blindly following others leads to no growth * There are many apps now that provide copy trading features, automatically following the direction of the big players' trades. This can easily be manipulated, and you won't learn the logic behind their trades, resulting in no growth.

Technical analysis is the compass * There are generally two types of people in the trading market: one is the news traders, who trade based on news, regardless of whether that news is insider or public. The other is the technical traders, who analyze price charts, volume-price relationships, and indicators to determine direction. I personally believe that for sufficiently traded cryptocurrencies like BTC, technical analysis is the most effective tool. However, for under-traded coins, especially early-stage coins, trading depth is poor, and news can greatly impact their prices.

Do not expect luck * It’s impossible to always have good luck, so maintain a calm mindset.

Don't seek success in gains and losses * Trading is not like winning the lottery; it's a game of probabilities, and one should not be anxious for success. Pay special attention to stop-loss and take-profit levels.

Unity of knowledge and action is very difficult * Knowing is easy, but acting is hard; trading is a battle with one's own greed and fear, which is extremely challenging.

Practice is only in action * If you want to cultivate yourself, why leave home? Trading is enough; only by overcoming greed, anger, and ignorance can one achieve the unity of knowledge and action, being poor without anxiety and rich without arrogance.

Quality investment target selection and spot capital management:

I am an investor who believes in philosophy, often saying things that sound very ordinary but I believe are filled with philosophical meaning, and I uphold them in my trading practice.

For example, I often like to say that if your goal is to make money, then your actions must support the results you want. Never do things that diverge from your purpose and behavior.

Because many people's actions in reality are like this: they know nothing yet attempt to take 20x contracts, their abilities cannot control the contracts, yet they feel they must take a gamble. The result of this gamble is liquidation; sometimes they know a certain coin is a Ponzi scheme yet still bet on it, always thinking they are not the last one to take over, only to be cut off in the end. This is a very typical divergence between purpose and behavior; behavior has basically determined the outcome. They want to achieve one thing but end up doing another.

Conversely, if you want to make money, you should do things that can directly generate income, avoid beating around the bush, and ensure that your operational behavior stays within your capability.

This principle applies to trading coins as well: when selecting targets and managing capital, do not aim to make money while continually engaging in difficult-to-profit activities. If you want to earn money, you must select good targets, invest effort in thoughtful consideration, avoid relying on mere fantasies or hearsay to choose coins, and do not buy coins just because others are rising. Doing so can easily lead to a divergence between purpose and behavior; even if you make money this time, it might just be luck, and eventually, you will lose it back.

Similarly, in capital management, leverage should not be too high. The higher the leverage, the greater the risk exposure, which will hinder the realization of your money-making goals.

Today, I mainly organized the quality target selection criteria and capital management thinking in my view.

I hope everyone can find good targets, match efficient capital management strategies, do things that resonate in purpose and behavior, think seriously, execute simply, and dig for wealth in the crypto space.

Quality target selection:

In my mind, selecting quality targets is the top priority in crypto investment, which is even more important than judging direction. If you choose the right target, you can say that you have succeeded in investment by half. If investment is like building a tall building, then selecting targets is the foundation of that building; only by solidifying the foundation can you build the building higher. Therefore, selecting good targets is very important. Only by finding good targets can concepts like value investment philosophy, trading psychology, simplified thinking, philosophical thinking, etc., play a positive role; otherwise, even the best investment methods will become poisons that hinder your ability to make money.

For example, many altcoins cannot be held with value thinking or dollar-cost averaging. Look at coinmarketcap; there are many altcoins that have dropped by over 200 times, and many of them are projects that have basically stalled. If you approach these targets with conventional investment principles, you might end up losing everything.

Clearly, the ultimate pursuit of selecting targets is to find those with high risk resistance and potential high returns. However, the development stage of crypto assets is relatively early, and there is currently no complete asset valuation model, while the valuation logic of traditional financial markets does not apply in the crypto space. Therefore, in crypto, special practices are needed; here are the selection criteria I have summarized:

1. Look at project positioning: track, vision. These contents are basically written in the white paper, and you can also understand them by participating in project parties' activities and listening to the founders’ presentations. Mainly from a personal cognitive perspective, clarify which problems the project aims to solve; whether the described field needs to be resolved through blockchain; how the project party perceives the future market and vision; and whether the project has a high ceiling. From this perspective, it is definitely necessary to choose projects with wide tracks, high ceilings, and great imaginative space, such as public chains and platform tokens.

2. Look at team strength: This aspect should also be assessed through white papers and various channels. Mainly understand the team's background, financial strength, technical strength, the layout of the founding team, investment institutions, etc. Understand the comprehensive strength of the team from multiple dimensions to see if it matches the project being undertaken, and what investment institutions are behind it, as well as their strength.

3. Look at the chip structure: this is very important since this is what we are trading. How much is the total amount of chips, what are the issuance costs, how large is the circulating volume, what is the circulation model, what is the economic model of the token in the project, and whether it holds up. This information mainly assesses whether the project pricing is reasonable and can be understood as a very important indicator of fundamentals.

4. Look at community consensus: In simple terms, it’s about checking how many fans the project has. This includes the countries covered by the project, community size, overall popularity, and which exchanges it has been listed on.

Among these four points, project positioning and team strength are the foundational items, primarily looking at their strengths. Only projects with strength can have topics and speculative space. Based on this, chip structure and community consensus are the core factors that truly determine the price of crypto assets at this stage.