We have no insider information, no capital advantage, and no trading experience to withstand several rounds of bull and bear markets.
What we can rely on is only to recognize the market, recognize ourselves, establish rules, and control emotions.
The crypto world is not a shortcut to wealth, but a battlefield where only a few survive.
1. First, recognize the market: this is a world where uncertainty reigns.
The essence of the market is not a technical game, but a highly complex probability game.
You must accept that even the most clever strategies cannot consistently profit in all environments. Any trading system that claims to have a "100% win rate" is a scam.
What we can do is not to defeat the market, but to adapt to it, using discipline to counter uncertainty.
Profits and losses originate from the same source: the way you make money determines the depth of your losses. Heavy position trading could double your money or lead to zero.
Grabbing rebounds: getting a bite, but just one wrong direction can lead to liquidation. Averaging down against the trend: sometimes it can break even, but in a one-sided trend, it’s a slow suicide. The traders who truly survive are those who repeatedly bet in the "probability advantage" in a systematic way—winning more when right and losing less when wrong.
Two, recognize yourself again: you are not a genius, nor are you a 'cool evening'
Most people do not die in the market due to ignorance, but due to arrogance: addicted to prediction: trying to catch all tops and bottoms; technical obsession: piling up indicators while neglecting position and risk control; superstition of luck: attributing profits to oneself and blaming the market for losses; overconfidence: after a series of wins, thinking one is invincible.
Please remember: discipline > technique, execution > inspiration, stability > stimulation.
Truly profitable trading is often boring.
Three, the underlying logic that allows ordinary people to also make money.
You do not need to become a genius; you just need to establish a trading system that can be replicated and adhered to.
1) Money management: use only a small portion of the total capital for each position, try lightly before confirming the trend, and do not go all in at once. Total position should not exceed 30%, leave room for maneuvering.
2) Suitable timeframes: Short-term: those with strong market perception and quick reactions play the swing; those who can endure fluctuations and withstand trends are suitable for medium-term; those who understand macro fundamentals have a better chance in long-term.
3) The trading system should be simple, executable, and replicable: Trend strategy: follow the trend, do not increase positions against the trend; Oscillation strategy: sell high and buy low, and be quick with stop-loss; Arbitrage strategy: cross-platform price differences and small fluctuations for arbitrage with high win rates but slow.
4) Stop-loss and profit-taking must be executed mechanically. Set the stop-loss line before entering, and when the time is up, cut the position. Profit-taking can be done in batches; do not be greedy or timid, just capturing the mid-term trend is enough.
5) Emotion management: reduce the frequency of watching the market, avoid impulsive trading, accept losses, do not average down on losses, do not inflate when winning, write trading logs, and continuously review and optimize the system.
Four, the key to truly surviving: mindset and compound interest
The hardest thing to defeat in the crypto world is not the market, but one's own greed and fear.
What you need to do is not "ten times in a year", but to achieve stable annual returns + strict stop-loss + not being eliminated by the market.
Do not underestimate the importance of "active observation"; compound interest is the only way for retail investors to compete with institutional players: an annualized 30% return over 10 years is 20 times; an annualized 50% return over 10 years is 57 times; doubling in one year, but exploding the next year leads to zero.
But if you accidentally incur losses...
Final advice: do not become a "legend", but become a "survivor".
In the crypto world, legendary stories belong to a very few people, while the vast majority of winners are ordinary people who can survive in the long market.
Make fewer mistakes, execute more, review frequently, and maintain rationality and patience.
The market is always changing, but the rules remain the same. Your only goal is: to not be washed out in this wave of sifting through sand. If you feel confused, you might as well save this article as the starting point of your trading journey. It’s not for getting rich, but for staying at the table.
Let's encourage each other.
There are many methods to trade, but not all methods can be learned. We all hope to achieve good gains with the simplest methods, but friends in the crypto world are not unable to find good coins, but rather think too complexly!
Trading is essentially about doing four things well: selecting targets, buying points, selling points, and managing positions. Traders need to have an independent trading system to execute these four actions.
In trading practice, the abc trading strategy + stable win rate, simple and easy to understand.
(1) Source and basic connotation of the strategy
The abc trading strategy is an interpretation based on the author's self-developed abcd core trading theory.
The teacher's trading method works like a charm in the A-share market, and in combination with the characteristics of crypto trading, Lele has expanded on this theory.
The abcd core trading theory incorporates the essence of Dow Theory, Wave Theory, Turtle Trading Rules, D’Avas Box Theory, trading psychology, and other theoretical gems.
Figure 1 shows a classic upward trend. The underlying logic is that the bottom rises, and the upward trend continues.
Figure 2 shows a classic downtrend. The underlying logic is that the top lowers, and the downtrend continues.
The price movements of any trading target's candlesticks are a continuous repetition and overlay of these two classic patterns. There is deep significance in these two classic patterns.
Understanding is the fundamental essence of mastering the abc trading strategy.
(2) Buying and selling points
The abc trading method focuses on right-side trading, pursuing a high win rate without pursuing extreme profits. It advocates phased position building, phased profit-taking, and phased stop-loss to minimize risk.
Taking Figure 1 as an example, the buying points appear at X and Y, with the buying characteristic at point X being "Four Entry" (the closing price exceeds the highest price of the four K lines on the left), and the buying characteristic at point Y being the closing price exceeding point B.
There are two stop-loss points: the first is "two exits" (when the current K line's closing price is below the lowest price of the two K lines on the left), and the second is point C, and all stop losses should occur here.
The abc trading method allows for a certain position for left-side trading, where the key points are to control position size and stop-loss.
In practical application to Figure 3, an upward abc structure has been formed; arrow 1 is the "Four Entry" buying point (the two buying points X and Y mentioned in Figure 1 overlap in the practical application of Figure 3).
The two stop-loss points are the potential "Two Exit" after arrow 1 and point C.
Note: "Four Entry and Two Exit" also stems from the teaching.
Compared to stop-loss points, the profit-taking point model is relatively complex, with multiple selection dimensions, and requires multiple rounds of profit-taking.
The three basic profit-taking methods are:
1. "Two Exit" profit-taking.
In Figure 3, arrow 2 indicates that the closing price is below the lowest price of the two left K lines, indicating profit-taking.
2. Excess profit-taking.
When there is a rapid volume increase in any time dimension K line, this indicates a quick surge, which is the left-side profit-taking.
3. Multiple overlapping profit-taking.
Draw a horizontal line based on point D's closing price, and if multiple points on the right are near the same horizontal line, one can choose to take profits near that horizontal line.
In addition, there are profit-taking methods such as low transaction volume profit-taking, critical point profit-taking, and box doubling profit-taking.
(3) Position size determines the extent of profit, with many variables, and varying weights.
The main principle is:
1. When the overall trend is upward, one can take larger long positions, but short positions should be light. The opposite is true.
2. The more evident the bullish volume over bearish volume, the higher the position ratio; if the volume is flat, one needs to control the position. The reverse is also true.
3. Left-side opening positions generally should not exceed 1/4.
The above are the key points of the basic version of the abc strategy.
On this basis, combined with complex candlesticks, aiming for a higher win rate, it is also necessary to use Fibonacci retracement, multiple points connection, ascending/descending channel lines, triangles, and other tools to apply the abc trading method.
The above content will be shared in the advanced version of the abc strategy, along with a detailed explanation of left-side opening, more profit-taking methods, "Four No Entry", "Two No Exit" and other advanced plays.
Volume-price relationship three rules: increase in volume and price to enter, stable volume and price drop to exit! 1. High volume at a high position is the best strategy.
A high position usually refers to a coin price near historical highs or running at high levels for 3-4 major cycles. If there is a volume increase at this time, it means that the main force is offloading and distributing chips to retail investors. At this point, it is best to exit and observe. If there is no significant volume at this position, do not exit easily.
2. Low volume at a low position is the best strategy.
Low volume at a low position may be because the main force is still distributing and has not reached the accumulation stage. As long as there is no accumulation, it is not the right time for a real surge; only when the volume increases can it be confirmed that the main force is taking action.
Therefore, one must dare to follow up when there is bottom volume, even if it is wrong, it is worth the risk; the waiting time may be longer, but it will not cause losses.
3. Entering when volume increases and price rises is not to be feared.
As trading volume increases, prices continue to rise, indicating that there is market momentum; according to trend principles, there will be subsequent actions and it will not just be a single wave, so one must dare to enter the market;
But one must be cautious when encountering an increase in volume with stable prices or a volume increase with a price increase.
For the overall market:
If the overall market volume continues to strengthen, there will be more opportunities for various coins; the overall operational policy is to use all available strength to push upstream;
On the contrary, if the volume is not very obvious, it is better to take a light position; if the energy weakens, individual stock opportunities are scarce, it is a better strategy to walk away, and do not attack lightly.
For individual coins:
1. When trading volume expands, the overall market is still building up for a significant rise; if trading volume shrinks, the energy diminishes, and one need not focus too much attention on small coins with low volume.
2. Pay attention to positions; both high and low volume can potentially cause trend reversals, so one must not overlook them.
3. When the trading volume is large and the coin price drops significantly, the trend continues to drop; if there is a decrease in volume at this later stage, it indicates that the downward trend is likely to end.
The day when the coin price falls to a minimal extent is the day of reversal.
How to maintain a 90% win rate in the crypto world!!!
The secret to maintaining a 90% win rate in the crypto world lies in the fact that many investors desire to achieve a high win rate in this world full of temptation and risk.
However, achieving a 90% win rate is not easy; it requires deep market understanding, rigorous investment strategies, and strong risk control capabilities.
The most difficult part of trading crypto is not selecting coins, nor is it buying and selling, but waiting; the most difficult part of life is not effort or struggle, but choice. Downward trends cleanse impatience, while upward trends test cultivation. Trading can help us grow continuously, and growth is painful; this pain does not come from growth itself but from facing so many changes and unforgettable experiences during the process of growth.
Disciplined people in the crypto world find pain to be joy; where there is hope, hell can also be heaven.
In the crypto world, retail investors always give up on coins that have not risen yet while chasing after those that have already risen; in life, people always cherish what they have not obtained while forgetting what they already possess.
The reason for losing money in trading is not because of simplicity in thinking, but because of complexity in wanting; the reason for happiness is not because of gaining more, but because of caring less.
Aze only engages in real trading, and the team still has positions available for $BTC $ETH.
