Today's employment data is explosive! Expected increase of 75,000 → Actual only 22,000
Unemployment rate: 4.2% → 4.3%
Plain interpretation:
1️⃣ The labor market has fallen short of expectations by a lot
2️⃣ The employment growth balance range is about 32,000 to 82,000, below the lower limit = unemployment rate can't be contained
3️⃣ Actual 22,000 directly breaks the defense → solid evidence of economic slowdown
4️⃣ The 25 basis point rate cut in September is stable, but don’t expect the market to take off just because of this
The real focus is on Powell's speech at the September FOMC meeting:
- If it hints at continuous rate cuts → Stocks, gold, and bitcoin soar 🚀
- If it only cuts once and then stops → US dollar bonds rise 📈 Stocks fall 📉
- If no hints are given → The market just lies flat!!
Some analysts even suggest a 50 basis point cut, with most believing there will be at least two more cuts of 25 basis points before the end of the year
Personal opinion (not investment advice, think for yourself):
The data is so bad, Powell must leave room for future rate cuts → as long as he eases, it’s fuel for a bull market 🐂💨
