The non-farm payroll data for August will be announced tonight at 20:30, and the published figures may affect the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts in September?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 5, 2025 (tonight), the U.S. Department of Labor will release the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment data for August. The release of this key economic indicator is likely to become an important barometer for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction in September.
Currently, the market generally predicts that this non-farm data will record 75,000 jobs, slightly higher than the previous value of 73,000 jobs, but the final result may directly disturb or even reverse the market's expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
At present, the general market view holds that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, but the performance of the August non-farm data being released may also become a key factor in determining the policy direction.
Analysts believe that if the data meets or exceeds expectations (indicating a recovery in the job market), combined with the recent inflationary pressures not significantly easing, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points has basically become a done deal, and there is even a very small possibility of maintaining the interest rate unchanged.
However, if the published data is significantly lower than expected (e.g., weak employment growth), the market does not rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve aggressively cutting rates by 50 basis points to address economic downturn risks.
In addition, the coexistence of a recovering job market and stubborn inflation has put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma between "anti-inflation" and "recession prevention."
Furthermore, some analysts believe that after the data release tonight, the market may experience significant volatility, especially in the prices of assets such as the U.S. dollar index, precious metals (like gold), U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
In summary, it is advised that investors view the impact of the data rationally, manage positions cautiously, and guard against short-term risks.
