BBH's analysis hits the nail on the head, but caution is needed regarding the mismatch risk between market expectations and policy realities. The Federal Reserve is more likely to adopt a 'small step fast run' interest rate cut strategy (such as 25 basis points on September 25 + 25 basis points in December), rather than aggressive easing.
Investors should pay attention to two critical points: first, whether non-farm data falls below 50,000, and second, whether core PCE drops below 2.5%. Before this, the 'weak fluctuation' of the dollar and the 'impulsive rise' of risk assets remain the main tone, but volatility will significantly amplify.
