Core Idea:
Short term (1-3 months): The market is still affected by liquidity fragmentation, BTC may fluctuate in the range of 55,000-65,000, but some altcoins have entered the oversold zone, presenting short-term rebound opportunities.
- Medium term (6 months+): If the Federal Reserve's policy shifts and the on-chain derivatives market matures, BTC may usher in an 'Institution 2.0' bull market, targeting 80,000-100,000.
- Key variables: Speed of capital inflow into traditional financial markets (TradFi), on-chain leverage liquidation levels, regulatory dynamics (such as stablecoin legislation).
I. Current unique contradictions in the market
1. BTC ETF capital inflow vs. on-chain liquidity depletion
Data: BTC ETF has seen a net inflow for 4 consecutive weeks (+1.2 billion USD), but CEX BTC reserves have dropped to a 5-year low (only 2 million coins).
Contradiction: Institutions are buying, but retail investors and whales have not followed, and the market lacks **real FOMO sentiment.
Inference: The current rise is driven by 'passive capital' (e.g., ETF regular investments), not active speculation, hence the volatility is reduced.
2. Stablecoin supply growth stagnates, but borrowing rates soar.
Data: USDT + USDC total supply remains flat (140 billion USD), but DeFi borrowing rates (e.g., Aave's USDC rate) have risen to 15%+ (only 3% at the beginning of the year).
Contradiction: Capital has not entered on a large scale, but leverage demand has surged.
Inference: The market has 'invisible leverage', which may amplify subsequent volatility.
3. Altcoin market cap percentage has bottomed, but capital has not rotated.
Data: Altcoin Market Cap percentage has dropped to 28% (the lowest since 2020), but capital is still concentrated in BTC/ETH.
Abnormal signal: The on-chain activity of some low-market-value coins (e.g., RWA, AI sector) has increased, but prices have not reflected this.
Inference: The market may see 'asymmetric opportunities'—high-quality projects with low liquidity may rebound first.
2. Key catalysts for the next 3-6 months.
1. Federal Reserve policy: Rate cuts ≠ bull market, key is 'real interest rates'.
- The market generally expects a rate cut in September, but if inflation rebounds, it may be postponed until 2025.
- More important indicators: US 10-year real interest rate (TIPS yield), if it falls below 1.5%, it will significantly favor risk assets.
2. Maturation of on-chain derivatives market.
CME Bitcoin options open interest hits a new high (+40% YoY), but decentralized derivatives (e.g., dYdX, Hyperliquid) trading volume remains low.
Potential trend: If institutions start using on-chain hedging tools, it may bring a new round of liquidity.
3. Regulatory 'gray area' narrows.
- After the US elections, crypto laws (e.g., FIT21) may accelerate through, which is favorable for the compliance track (e.g., stablecoins, security tokens).
3. Operational strategy: Capture Alpha with contrarian thinking.
1. Short term (1-3 months)
BTC: If it falls below 58,000, it can be accumulated; if it breaks 65,000, observe if it is accompanied by volume.
Altcoins: Focus on low FDV (fully diluted valuation) + high on-chain activity projects (e.g., DePIN, modular blockchain).
2. Medium term (6 months+)
Leverage liquidation opportunity: Current perpetual contract funding rates are neutral, if they suddenly turn negative, it may trigger a short-term crash, suitable for reverse operations.
- Narrative rotation: Q4 2024 may hype 'BTC halving cycle' + 'ETH Layer3 ecosystem'.
3. High-risk high-return strategies.
Liquidity mining arbitrage: Some emerging chains (e.g., Berachain, Monad) testing network incentive programs may have early dividends.
NFTFI recovery: If trading volume on platforms like Blur rebounds, related tokens (BLUR, LOOKS) may bounce back.
4. The biggest risk in the market: liquidity trap.
Worst-case scenario: If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates + stablecoin supply shrinks, the market may enter a 'gradual decline' mode, similar to 2018-2019.
- Monitoring indicators:
- USDT market cap growth rate (if it declines for three consecutive months, caution is needed).
- Changes in BTC/ETH reserves on CEX (whether whales are secretly unloading).
Conclusion: The market is in a 'consolidation period' and needs to actively seek unconventional signals.
The current market situation is similar to Q3 2020 (the eve of DeFi Summer) - seemingly calm on the surface, but underlying capital is surging. Whether we can break through in the second half of the year depends on:
1. Are institutions increasing on-chain layouts (e.g., BlackRock launching Tokenized Fund)?
2. Is there a new native demand (e.g., AI agents for automatic trading, on-chain government bonds)?
Suggestion: Reduce excessive focus on short-term prices, instead tracking on-chain data + niche tracks, waiting for 'non-consensus opportunities'. I am Ah Peng, having experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, I have rich market experience in various financial fields, here, penetrating the fog of information to discover the real market. More opportunities to grasp the wealth codes, find truly valuable opportunities, don't miss and regret again!
Ah Peng only does real trading, the team still has positions to enter quickly #Strategy增持比特币 $BTC$ETH
