Recently, I talked with quite a few friends in the circle and found that everyone's anxiety points are particularly consistent—The bull market of 2025 has clearly reached the second half, but most of the altcoins in hand are still stuck at bear market prices. Watching BTC rise for more than two years, I'm always afraid of missing the whole round of the market, repeatedly asking me, "When will the altcoins move? How much space is left?"
In fact, the core logic of the crypto world has not changed. The short-term trend ultimately depends on the flow of large funds. The news in early September has actually provided quite a few signals: SharpLink increased its holdings of nearly 40,000 ETH at an average price of $4,531, now holding over 830,000 in total, with a market value of about $3.6 billion; Yunfeng Financial has also passed a resolution to buy ETH, acquiring 10,000 coins, with a cost of approximately $44 million; even MicroStrategy, which has always heavily invested in BTC, has not stopped and added 4,048 BTC, now with total holdings exceeding 630,000, with a market value of about $70 billion; this year, the yield has also reached 25.7%.
More intuitively, the capital flow of CEX - on September 3rd, looking at the data, major platforms like Binance, OKX, and Bitfinex all showed significant net inflows of capital, indicating that the 'fresh water' in the market is actually increasing.
Looking at the macro level, the M2 money supply in the United States has reached $22.12 trillion, and gold has also set a new high of $3480 per ounce. Behind this is actually large funds seeking safe-haven assets. And BTC? It has been in a sideways consolidation for seven weeks, and now it is in the eighth week, not far from the time to choose a direction.
Regarding ETH, by the end of August, there had already been key actions - a strong breakthrough of the previous high of $4868 from 2021, peaking at $4955 before pulling back to confirm. Looking ahead, another upward surge testing the $5350-$5600 range seems quite reasonable. However, to be objective, the strength of this breakthrough is indeed not as strong as the one in 2021, and the continuation of monthly positive candles, I judge that it will likely slow down after six consecutive positive months, as the current market funds have not completely shifted from BTC to Altcoins (shitcoins).
But the key point is not the strength of the breakthrough, but the signal significance - ETH breaking the previous high essentially conveys the message to the market that 'the altcoin bull market is coming.' Looking back at the patterns of the bull market from 2020-2021, after ETH breaks the key resistance level, the cycle for funds to shift from mainstream coins to Ethereum-based altcoins is about 3-4 weeks. Combined with the current fund entry rhythm, around early October should be a window for Ethereum-based altcoins to start concentrated movement. According to my deductions, about 60% of Ethereum-based altcoins will likely show decent bull market performance during this phase.
Finally, it must be emphasized: all of these are my deductions based on past market patterns, current fund movements, and data, and do not constitute investment advice. The volatility of the crypto market is too great, and policies and fund flows can change at any time. Everyone should just take it as a reference; if you really want to make decisions, you still need to consider your own risk tolerance and not blindly follow trends.
