SOL Trend Deep Analysis: Institutional Billion Holdings Build a Bottom, Continuous Accumulation Before ETF Reveals Key Signals!!!
K Brother is very optimistic about the three core logics of SOL:
1. Institutional billion-level holdings build a bottom, continuous accumulation before ETF acts as a price ballast
Holding scale hits a record: DeFi Development's 202,000 SOL holdings (valued at 427 million USD), equivalent to 2.3% of the current circulation, and its long-term holding logic is formed through "staking income + ecological layout" (annual staking yield 7%-9%), rather than short-term speculation.
Pre-ETF accumulation rule: Referring to Bitcoin ETF's continuous accumulation through Grayscale, institutional holdings of SOL surged from 400,000 in 2024 to 202,000 in 2025, an increase of over 400%. Institutions in SOL ETF (such as SSK) have formed a positive cycle of "accumulation → liquidity contraction → price increase" through prior "coin hoarding and locking."
2. Technical breakthroughs and ecological explosion, building a dual engine of value growth
Performance revolution: Solana's Firedancer client is about to go live, with an actual TPS breaking 1 million (current theoretical value 65k), transaction fees dropping to 0.00025 USD, becoming a "performance lowland" for high-frequency trading, DeFi, and chain games.
Ecological landing: In Q2 2025, Solana's daily active addresses reached a historical high (surpassing the peak in 2021 bull market), with daily trading volume proportions of NFT projects like Y00ts and Tensor exceeding Ethereum. The locked amount of DeFi protocols Raydium and Serum increased by 35% monthly, forming a flywheel of "user growth → application prosperity → token demand."
3. Policy and capital resonance, opening a super cycle
Interest rate cut expectations boost: Bank of America predicts that the Federal Reserve's interest rate may drop below 3% (currently 4.5%). If a 30% reduction is achieved, the amount of capital in the crypto space may increase by 30%+, with SOL, as the "third in market cap and first in liquidity" public chain, prioritizing the absorption of incremental funds.
Compliance channels opened: Solana has been recognized by Visa and PayPal as a stablecoin settlement layer, Solana Pay has connected over 100,000 merchants on Shopify, and the compliance process accelerates "institutional funds entering → valuation reassessment."
In the short term, institutional locking + ETF capital inflow may drive SOL to break through 250 USD (currently 202 USD); in the long term, if Firedancer is implemented and the ecosystem continues to expand, the year-end target could be seen at 300 USD.
