The core of the recent rise in cryptocurrency prices is the market's growing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month. Recent employment data shows marginal weakening, and the cooling labor demand provides support for a policy shift. The dollar's mild rebound lacks sustainability, and the 'debt concerns' triggered by the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields have receded, stabilizing market risk appetite, which has led to short-term profit-taking in cryptocurrency prices. However, medium-term hedging and allocation demand remain unchanged. After the rise over the past two weeks, some funds triggered profit-taking due to 'missed opportunities anxiety' during subsequent pullbacks, leading to fluctuating short-term sentiment. Currently, the market is synchronously stabilizing and reducing hedging demand, with the dollar's rebound and stabilizing yields creating constraints on cryptocurrency prices. However, the consensus on interest rate cuts in the medium term has not reversed, and Bitcoin still holds hedging value; with non-farm payrolls and interest rate meetings approaching, leveraged funds are compressing positions, resulting in a neutral RSI and weakening MACD momentum. The current sentiment is a mix of 'rational optimism' and 'defensive posture before events', with limited chasing of rises but still a willingness to collect on dips.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a weak correction. The daily chart shows a rapid price decline recently, forming a large bearish candle, indicating a clear correction trend. The hourly chart has shown continuous bearish candles after oscillating at a high level, with short-term lows continuing to decline, reflecting a dominance of bears. The MACD on the hourly chart shows both DIF and DEA are negative and diverging downwards, with green bars increasing, indicating a weak market; the daily chart also shows a death cross status, with strong bearish momentum. The hourly RSI hovers around 30, close to the oversold area, but no significant rebound signs have been observed; the daily RSI is gradually declining, still with further downside potential. The hourly EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 all show a bearish arrangement, with prices running below all moving averages, indicating significant short-term pressure; the daily EMA7 has turned downwards, pressuring prices, while EMA30 and EMA120 maintain a certain distance, overall currently leaning bearish.

Zhou Yanling's 9.5 Bitcoin trading strategy:

1. Short at 110700-110000, stop loss above 111800, target 109000-108200

2. Long at 108200-109000, stop loss below 107200, target 110000-110800

Zhou Yanling's 9.5 Ethereum trading strategy:

1. Long at 4250-4280, stop loss below 4200, target 4350-4380

2. Short at 4400-4370, stop loss above 4450, target 4300-426

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