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Brothers, pay attention! An American Labor Day holiday has directly turned this week's financial market into a mess! The API and EIA crude oil data, along with the 'little non-farm' ADP, have all been delayed, while only the non-farm data is firmly held for Friday night's session—this operation is definitely not a coincidence, but a classic script where the main market force takes advantage of the 'time difference' to harvest the leeks! As someone who has gone through multiple bull and bear markets, I will tear open the facade today and help you understand the bloody storms behind the crypto world!
1. Data delay = Main force 'running ahead' window?
History is always surprisingly similar: In January 2023, data was also delayed due to a holiday, resulting in BTC plummeting 8% during the data vacuum period, and many leveraged traders lost everything overnight! The core logic is—uncertainty is the capital's most hated enemy. Institutions and whales tend to withdraw funds for risk aversion when data is unclear, leading to a sharp decline in market liquidity. Furthermore, this delayed ADP (little non-farm) is a precursor to the non-farm data; its absence will throw the market into a 'blind guessing mode', and panic will inevitably spread!
2. Is the crypto world doomed to a bloodbath in the short term? The truth may be the opposite!
Don't be fooled by the bears! Remember: Delay ≠ bad news, but rather compresses the volatility into a 'spring'! Once the subsequent data exceeds expectations positively (e.g., strong non-farm employment), the buying pressure that has been held back for days will explode instantly! Looking back at August 2024, in a similar situation, ETH surged 12% within an hour. Real experts have long set buy orders at low positions, just waiting for the foolish to liquidate and create a golden pit!
3. Crude oil data hides deadly risks!
EIA crude oil inventory postponed to be released at 00:00 on Friday—this timing perfectly coincides with the opening of the Asian session in the crypto market. If crude oil inventories surge (indicating economic weakness), it may lead to a significant fall in Bitcoin's commodity attributes; conversely, if inventories plummet, expectations of inflation will rise, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates will drop sharply, which is also bad for the crypto market! It is advisable to closely monitor the pre-market fluctuations of Brent crude oil, which has become an invisible barometer for the crypto market!
Exclusive trading strategy by the Great Sage
Short-term traders: Must reduce positions to below 50% from tonight until Thursday morning to avoid passive stomping before the data!
Ambush traders: If BTC falls below $108,000, consider buying in batches, targeting a rebound to $118,000 after the non-farm data!
Contract traders: Prohibit high leverage overnight! Beware of the main force creating false breakthroughs during the vacuum period leading to liquidation!
Lastly, here’s a bombshell viewpoint: This wave of data delay is essentially a psychological test from the Federal Reserve—has the market become so fragile that it can't even bear 'waiting'? If the crypto world can withstand selling pressure amidst uncertainty, the second stage of the bull market will surely begin! Follow me for a live broadcast this Friday night during the non-farm data release!
Do you think this delay is an opportunity or a trap? Place your bets in the comments, and tonight I will reveal three divine predictions!
