๐จ๐คฏ Sept. 17: Will the Expected Fed Rate Cut spark a Bitcoin vs Gold Clash? ๐นโจ
๐ Fed Policy Shift on the Horizon
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Sept. 17, with a 90% probability priced in. Easier policy could inject liquidity and boost demand for leverage, setting the stage for a basis trade comeback.
๐ฐ What Is the Basis Trade?
The basis trade (arbitrage between spot and futures) involves buying Bitcoin on spot markets or ETFs while selling futures to capture the price spread. Once delivering annualized returns near 20%, it has slumped below 10% throughout 2025.
๐ Market Weakness in 2025
๐CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures open interest fell from 212K BTC โ 130K BTC
๐ฅถSpot ETF inflows cooled after the 2024 boom
โ๏ธImplied volatility hit a record low of 35 before rebounding to 40
๐ Bitcoin trades ~ $108K, steady but overshadowed by goldโs 30% YTD surge. Network strength is surging, with the 7-day hashrate hitting 1 ZettaHash/s for the first time. Yet history warnsโSeptember is often BTCโs weakest month, with negative returns common.
โ๏ธ Bitcoin vs Gold
๐ช Gold: +30โ35% YTD, fueled by safe-haven flows and central bank buying. Gold hits record high of $3,508.50
โฟ Bitcoin: +12โ16% YTD, strong but lagging gold as institutions stay cautious.
๐ Outlook: A Fed cut could tilt flows back into Bitcoin, narrowing goldโs lead.
๐ค Why Sept. 17 Matters?
If the Fed cuts on Sept. 17, then Sept. 27 futures settlement will test if liquidity revives the basis tradeโor if gold remains the undisputed winner of 2025.#GoldPriceRecordHigh
