The news of interest rate cuts in September has once again accelerated the heartbeat of many in the crypto world—it's as if financial freedom is just around the corner, and the bull market's horn has already sounded. But don't rush; this grand play led by the Federal Reserve is never simple. Behind the apparent benefits, there often lurks a scythe.
Short-term warning: Don't be an impulsive relay racer.
In the short term (1-4 weeks), don't rush to chase highs. There's an old saying in financial markets: 'When good news is exhausted, it becomes bad news.' The implementation of interest rate cuts actually marks the moment of expectation realization. Those funds that have already positioned at low levels are waiting to take profits when the market surges. Meanwhile, heavily leveraged bulls may collapse instantly in severe fluctuations.
Do you remember March 2020? After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, Bitcoin plummeted nearly 50%. This is not an accident; it is history repeating itself. No matter how crazy the market seems, you must remain calm: chasing highs could quickly turn you into a high-positioned watcher.
But in the long term, fresh capital is really coming.
Interest rate cuts mean cheaper money and more abundant liquidity. This capital won't just circulate within the banking system—it will eventually flow into various assets, and the crypto world will certainly not be forgotten. Plus, the ETH ETF is very likely to be approved; these two factors will create a dual engine for market trends.
After the Bitcoin ETF is approved, the average daily net inflow will reach $300 million, pushing prices higher. If the ETH ETF is also successfully approved, Ethereum and its ecosystem will receive a strong influx of funds. At that time, Bitcoin could surge to $150,000? Perhaps that's just the starting point. The entire crypto market may even usher in a 'digital currency version of the Nasdaq era.'
Three potential futures: how should you prepare?
1. Best-case scenario: The interest rate cuts proceed smoothly + the ETH ETF is approved as scheduled. The double benefit will quickly heat up the market, Bitcoin is expected to break its previous high, with mainstream coins and quality altcoins following suit.
2. Average scenario: Interest rate cuts are implemented, but economic data falls short of expectations, with US stocks dragging down the crypto market. Mainstream coins may experience sideways movement, while altcoins without real value support may suffer severe declines.
3. Worst-case scenario: If inflation resurges, the Federal Reserve may suddenly change course and even raise interest rates again. In such a scenario, market sentiment will rapidly reverse, and Bitcoin may very well be cut in half again. The crash of 2022 was the most merciless lesson.
Advice for ordinary investors.
In the short term, don't chase highs. Even if Bitcoin breaks above $120,000, after the good news is realized, you should decisively reduce your position. Don't aim to earn the last cent, nor take the last baton. Keep a close eye on the progress of the ETH ETF. Once approved, consider increasing your positions in ETH and its ecosystem tokens (like ARB, SSV, etc.); if not approved, you should decisively exit and not linger. Always keep enough capital on hand. If a sharp decline occurs, gradually build positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Leading coins have stronger consensus and better resilience, making them a relatively safe choice during a liquidity phase.
Finally, remember:
Bull markets rely on liquidity, not dreams. The interest rate cut in September merely turned on the tap for funds, but when the water flows and how much will flow remains full of uncertainties. Stay calm, hold your positions, and don't let FOMO take control—only then can you potentially wait for the real tide to come.
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