Once the Federal Reserve's rate cut is finalized, the cryptocurrency market's celebration is just beginning—but this time, is it smart money dancing, or retail investors picking up the pieces?

In-depth analysis:
According to the latest data from CME's 'FedWatch', the market's probability expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 89.7%. This means that the market almost unanimously believes that a rate cut is imminent. This rate cut is different from the passive cuts during past crises; it resembles a preventative measure for the economy 'to prepare for a rainy day.' Such a nature of rate cut may have different impacts on the cryptocurrency market.

Long Ge's viewpoint:

In the short term, watch liquidity; in the long term, watch regulation: A 25 basis point rate cut will directly release US dollar liquidity, but regulatory risks must be heeded: The US SEC is accelerating compliance reviews of cryptocurrency exchanges, and if policies tighten, it may offset the benefits of the rate cut.

Institutional behavior determines direction: Institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock have laid out strategies through Bitcoin ETFs; if tech stocks in the US pull back after the rate cut, funds may shift to BTC as 'digital gold.' However, if economic data worsens, institutions may withdraw from risk assets.

Technical aspects hide dangers: The daily MACD for BTC is about to golden cross, but the weekly RSI is already overbought. If it fails to break through $120,000 after the rate cut, it could trigger a sell-off due to 'buy the rumor, sell the news.'

Specific impacts on the cryptocurrency market:

Bitcoin: It may surge to $115,000-$118,000 on the first day after the rate cut, but caution is needed against a pullback. If the September non-farm data is strong, it may trigger 'soft landing' expectations, pushing BTC to challenge $120,000.

Stablecoins: Inflows into the cryptocurrency market will directly increase USDT's market value, which has already grown by $1.7 billion in the past month; after the rate cut, it may surpass $120 billion.

Altcoins: Liquidity overflow may drive up tokens like Ethereum and Solana, but caution is needed against the trap of 'promoting new over old'—new public chain projects may siphon off funds.

In the coming weeks, August's non-farm employment data (to be released on September 5) and August's CPI inflation data (to be released on September 11) will be crucial. These data will ultimately determine the Federal Reserve's dot plot and expectations for the policy pace in the fourth quarter.

In the next article, I will deeply analyze 'Survival Guide for the Cryptocurrency Market After the Rate Cut', teaching you how to avoid pitfalls and seize once-in-a-decade wealth opportunities! To learn more about the dynamics and analysis of the cryptocurrency market, don't forget to follow Long Ge, teaching you how to avoid the scythe and get straight to the table to share the meat!