#RedSeptember The term "Red September" refers to a historical trend observed in the price of $BTC

, where the month of September tends to close with losses more frequently than other months. This pattern has been highlighted by analysts and traders as a recurring phenomenon since Bitcoin's inception, and it has generated significant attention in the crypto community.

Origin and context of "Red September"

Since 2013, September has averaged a monthly decline of 3.77% in Bitcoin's price. Although it does not occur every year, the frequency of negative months in September is statistically higher than in the rest of the year. This has led many to call it a "seasonal effect."

This behavior is not exclusive to a single year but has been repeated across several cycles, including key periods such as:

- 2022, when Bitcoin tested its support at the 200-day moving average during September.

- 2025, with coordinated sales by institutions that withdrew about $3.5 billion in profits, intensifying the bearish pressure.

Why does "Red September" happen?

Although there is no single cause, several factors could explain this trend:

- Institutional rebalancing: At the end of the third quarter, many financial institutions adjust their portfolios, which may include taking profits in volatile assets like Bitcoin.

- Political and macroeconomic uncertainty: September often coincides with the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, affecting the flow of capital into risk assets.

- Rotation towards safe-haven assets: As mentioned in the data, when gold shows strength (as in a recent breakout), some investors may move capital from Bitcoin to traditional assets, viewing Bitcoin as a temporary alternative to "digital gold."

Expert Insights

Some influential leaders in the space offer broader visions:

- Marty Bent suggests not to worry about short-term corrections but to focus on the long-term trend: we are transitioning to a new monetary regime.

- Cuban 🍂 points out that moments like this, where Bitcoin declines while gold rises, have historically been turning points before new highs.

- KiYoungJu highlights that the average cost basis of Bitcoin for long-term holders (LTH) is only **$35,600**, suggesting there is a wide margin of safety below the current price.

Conclusion:

"Red September" is more than a meme: it is a seasonal pattern supported by historical data. However, its impact is changing with market maturity. As more institutions participate, price behavior becomes more complex, and the "red" effect may be less predictable.

What was once a clear trend is now mixed with macroeconomic dynamics, ETF flows, and corporate treasury strategies — like the recent accumulation of over 20,000 BTC by the Japanese company Metaplanet.

What do you think? Do you believe September will be volatile? Leave me a comment and follow me.