Bitcoin has replicated the history of humanity in early civilizations, different races, and different tribes, who used gold as a general equivalent. The current estimated number of direct holders of Bitcoin is roughly 100-150 million, while indirect holders through trust funds, ETFs, stocks, and other channels are estimated to be in the tens of millions, potentially bringing the overall scale to about 200 million people.
An entity that can gather the consensus of 200 million people has already surpassed the backing ability of most fiat currencies. If Bitcoin is considered a Ponzi scheme, then by the same standard, all fiat currencies except the US dollar, euro, Chinese yuan, Indian rupee, and Swiss franc would be Ponzi schemes. The Swiss franc is listed because its issuance requires a backing of no less than 40% in gold reserves, making it not purely a fiat currency. Using a setting from Warhammer, as long as there are enough followers and enough devotion, one can manifest the divine through worship.
The number of Bitcoin holders exceeds that of Anglican Church members (85 million) and Theravada Buddhist followers (150 million), and is slightly less than that of Orthodox Christians (220 million) and Shia Muslims (200-300 million). If Bitcoin belief is defined as a religion, it has already entered the ranks of mainstream religious denominations. It can be said that as long as humanity does not engage in nuclear warfare and blow itself back to the Stone Age, Bitcoin as a consensus will have a lifespan measured in centuries.
As more institutional investors get involved and the holders become increasingly dispersed, the value fluctuations of Bitcoin will gradually stabilize, becoming the opposite of all fiat currencies. I also predict that in the future, Bitcoin will no longer be primarily priced in US dollars, but rather a Bitcoin index will emerge that is pegged to a basket of currencies, growing in sync with the global M2. Bitcoin will indeed not become a payment currency, not because of its high volatility, but due to its anti-inflation properties. Financial assets with anti-inflation properties are akin to 'good money'; people tend to hoard good money while using inferior money for purchases, leading to the exit of good money from circulation. The fact that gold has largely exited circulation is based on the same reasoning.
