#PCE数据来袭 okb still OK?
I. Short-term trend judgment
Short-term trend: Bearish / Oscillating slightly bearish
II. Key price level analysis
(1) Resistance level
Core resistance: MA (7) corresponding to 170.11, which is the most direct resistance level recently. If the price cannot effectively break through and stabilize above this moving average, the probability of a short-term decline or oscillation downward is relatively high.
Stronger resistance: MA (30) corresponding to 172.89, which is a more important resistance point. After breaking through MA (7), attention should be focused on the pressure situation at this position.
(2) Support level
Key support: 166.00, which is a strong support level that has just been tested. The long lower shadow indicates that the buying power at this position is strong, and it is the last line of defense for short-term bulls.
(3) Pattern judgment
The price continues to be suppressed below the main moving averages, and short-term market sentiment leans towards bearish. Recently, the long lower shadow candlestick pattern shows that both bulls and bears are fiercely competing at lower levels, but the bearish force has a slight advantage.
(1) Bearish scenario
If the price continues to fail to return above MA (7), and eventually effectively breaks below the support level of 166.00, a further downward space may open up in the short term, with the next target at 164.00, or even the psychological level of 160.00.
(2) Bullish scenario
If the price stabilizes again at the support level of 166.00 and breaks through the resistance levels of MA (7) (170.11) and MA (30) (172.89) with increased volume, the short-term downward trend may reverse, and the price is expected to retest the previous high near 175.00.
(1) Position holders (Bulls)
Use 166.00 as a key reference point for stop loss. If the price falls below this level without a pullback, consider reducing positions or stopping losses to control risk.
If the price holds above 166.00 and rebounds, observe whether it can break through 170.11 (MA7) resistance; if it breaks through, it can be held temporarily.
(2) Empty position holders / Short-term traders
Aggressive short positions: When the price rebounds to the range of 169.00-170.00 (near MA7), you can attempt to short with a light position; set the stop loss above 173.00 (MA (30)), with the target at 166.50-166.00.
Conservative long positions: Currently, the moving average suppression is obvious, and blindly bottom-fishing is not recommended. A more prudent approach is to wait for the price to clearly form a double bottom, head and shoulders bottom, or other bullish patterns at 166.00 before considering entry; set the stop loss below 165.50, with the target at 170.00.
Breakout trading: If the price strongly breaks above 173.00 (MA30) with increased volume, you can follow the trend and go long, with the target at 175.00.
