Technical Analysis of $ETH (4-Hour K-Line)

1. Price and Moving Averages: ETH price has fallen from 4684.20 to the current 4447.29, below EMA24, EMA48, and other moving averages, showing significant pressure; MA120 (4458.01) constitutes a key short-term resistance, and if it can break through or alleviate downward pressure.

2. Trading Volume: Volume has increased during the decline phase, with heavy selling pressure; recent volume contraction leads to a balanced bull-bear struggle, and attention is needed on volume support during breakouts.

3. RSI: RSI1 (36.88), RSI2 (41.67), and RSI3 (46.48) are all below 50, indicating a bearish advantage, approaching oversold conditions with potential rebound demand.

4. KDJ: K (24.50) < D (30.29), forming a death cross with low values, indicating short-term weakness, but the K-line may have weak rebound momentum.

5. Bollinger Bands: Price is between the middle band (4525.54) and the lower band (4366.52), with the middle band acting as resistance; breaking below the lower band will deepen the adjustment, while stabilizing may lead to a rebound.

6. MACD: DIF (14.61) < DEA (30.80), with green bars continuing, indicating bearish dominance but shortening green bars, suggesting a potential weakening of bearish strength.

Fundamental Analysis (ETH News)

1. Large Withdrawals and Staking: An address withdrew 17,836 ETH from OKX, and the exit of PoS validators has pushed the re-staking protocol's TVL to exceed $30 billion, with withdrawals potentially increasing circulation selling pressure, while re-staking indicates ecosystem activity, with intertwined bullish and bearish factors.

2. ETF and Institutional Dynamics: The SEC has delayed a decision on Grayscale's Ethereum ETF staking function, increasing short-term uncertainty; Shun Tai Holdings plans to invest HKD 70 million, while CME futures open interest hits an all-time high, reflecting institutional interest, which is a long-term positive.

3. Market Supply and Demand and Investment: BitMine requires substantial investment, with funds shifting from speculation to long-term, reflecting changes in ETH's supply-demand pattern and investment logic, potentially supporting value in the long term.

Comprehensive Judgment

Technically, bears dominate but with weakening bearish strength, indicating potential for a short-term rebound; fundamentally, institutional layouts and other long-term positives coexist with short-term negatives like withdrawals. Short-term focus on 4458.01 (MA120) resistance, with a breakout and volume support potentially strengthening the rebound trend; if not broken, the downward oscillation may continue, with caution on lower band support. In terms of operations, light position holders may attempt to gamble on rebounds with stop-loss settings; for medium to long-term positions, consider buying on dips, tracking institutional movements and ETF progress, as cryptocurrency carries high risks, and position control is essential.