$ETH 1. Technical Analysis
1. Price and Moving Averages: From the candlestick chart, the price rebounded from a low of 4311.48, currently at 4595.16, above short-term moving averages like EMA24 and EMA48, supported by moving averages; however, MA60 (4596.12) constitutes short-term resistance, the price is close to this moving average, whether it breaks through or not affects the trend.
2. Trading Volume: During the rebound phase, volume expands, indicating active buying; during consolidation, volume is relatively stable, the long-short game is temporarily balanced, attention needs to be paid to volume accompanying key level breakouts.
3. RSI Indicator: RSI1 (69.92), RSI2 (61.91), RSI3 (53.73) are all above 50, RSI1 is close to the overbought range, short-term bullish dominance but may have adjustment pressure.
4. KDJ Indicator: K (87.21), D (85.08) values are high and K > D, indicating short-term strength, but the overbought area can easily trigger adjustments.
5. Bollinger Bands: The price is between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands (middle band 4483.48, upper band 4619.40), middle band support is effective, the upper band is a short-term target resistance, if it breaks through the upper band, upward space may open.
6. MACD Indicator: DIF (-26.82), DEA (-46.10), MACD (38.56) green bars turn yellow and continue to expand, bullish momentum strengthens, trend is biased strong.
2. Fundamental Analysis (ETH News)
1. Increased Holdings and Position Dynamics: SharpLink increased by 56,533 ETH, Fundamental Global increased by 1,111 ETH, etc. Institutional increased holdings reflect recognition of ETH's long-term value, favorable for price; although SharpLink's total market value has fallen below the position value, the increase signals confidence.
2. Market Attention and Reports: Fidelity released a report focusing on ETH's long-term potential, reflecting institutions' emphasis on ETH's position in the digital asset market, which is beneficial for enhancing market confidence; glassnode data shows investors have a large amount of unrealized gains, which may affect short-term selling pressure (profit-taking may occur), but indicates a foundation for long-term upward momentum.
3. Contract Holdings and Repurchase: ETH network contract holdings decreased by 7.34% in 24 hours, short-term leveraged funds leaving may cause volatility to converge; ETHZilla authorized stock repurchase and holdings exceeded 100,000 pieces, the repurchase action stabilizes the market, favorable for price.
3. Comprehensive Judgment
From a technical perspective, short-term bullish dominance, close to MA60 and the upper Bollinger Band, a breakout will continue the rebound; from a fundamental perspective, institutional increased holdings, long-term potential recognition, and other favorable supports. However, RSI and KDJ are overbought and profit-taking may bring adjustment pressure. In terms of operation, focus on the key levels of 4619.40 (upper Bollinger Band) and 4596.12 (MA60) for breakout; if a significant breakout occurs, the upward trend will be reinforced; if it encounters resistance and falls back, be wary of short-term adjustments, dynamically adjust strategies based on news (institutional continuous actions, changes in positions), cryptocurrency volatility is high, control positions and set stop-loss.
